Serie A: The Seedorf factor is unlikely to stop Milan being defeated by Verona

The great Clarence Seedorf has been unveiled as the new boss of Milan
The great Clarence Seedorf has been unveiled as the new boss of Milan
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Dave Farrar is back with his weekly look at Serie A and he thinks it'll take new boss Clarence Seedorf more than three days to turn things around at the San Siro...

"I’ll be backing Verona at 8.27/1, and if they go a goal down, I’ll be backing them again in-play. No one in Serie A has dropped more points from winning situations than Milan, and even though the Seedorf effect could give them a performance bounce, I’m happy to take the chance that it will take the Dutchman more than three days to turn things around."

Genoa v Inter 
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

A friend of mine was bemoaning Inter this week, suggesting that they're a punter's nightmare. He has a point in that they're very hard to judge. Inter, even with a change of coach, have continued to be the kind of team that plays well when they're supposed to struggle (in the derby against Milan, for example) or disappoint when they look good.

Walter Mazzarri's team certainly look short enough for their trip to Genoa, and they just might be worth opposing at 2.0621/20, with Genoa as big as 4.3100/30 for the win. You can look at Genoa's recent form and write them off: they've won only one of their last seven in Serie A, but what makes this interesting is that Inter's record over THEIR last seven is exactly the same, and when you throw in Genoa's home record (they've won 4 of their last 6 at the Marassi) then you have to give them a chance at the prices.  

Gian Piero Gasperini will also be a little extra eager to win this one, as he's up against the club that discarded him so swiftly when he got his San Siro chance, and, while I wouldn't put you off laying Inter at somewhere near even money, Ill be backing Gasperini and Genoa to make the most of Inter's baffling form.  They're too big, simple as that.  

Recommended Bet

Back Genoa to beat Inter @ 4.3100/30


Sassuolo v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

After losing five games in a row, Sassuolo bounced back with a giant bang last week, beating Milan in one of Serie A's most remarkable matches. It finished 4-3, and it truly announced Domenico Berardi as a future superstar. He now has eleven goals for the season, and Juventus must be thrilled that they own him, and indeed that they're going to win the league without even needing him.  

Berardi will have a chance to make Juve fans happy on Sunday, when he leads the line for Sassuolo against Torino, and I'm surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals as the outsider in this one. They're trading at 2.0621/20, and that's a price to get stuck into.  

Sassuolo's first five home games all featured at least three goals, but then they started to close up a little, and frankly go against the way that Eusebio Di Francesco normally wants his teams to play. Last week was a sign that the coach is going to try and hit his way out of trouble, and I think that it could be fun to watch. Sassuolo will cause Torino problems going forward, but they have the worst back line in Serie A, and with Ciro Immobile back, Torino will offer much more of a goal threat than they did without him against Fiorentina last week.  

It's a game that's set for goals, and we should take advantage of a generous price. 

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Sassuolo v Torino @ 2.0621/20


Milan v Verona
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

My bet of the week comes from San Siro, with Milan looking for stability and a measure of revenge. There is no historical love lost between the Rossoneri and Verona, and after Verona triumphed against Milan on the opening day, their fantastic travelling fans will be looking for a famous double. And they have a chance: a big chance. I can scarcely believe that Verona are as big as 8.07/1 to win.  

Remember that this is Serie's A's 6th placed side travelling to the team in 11th, and yet you can lay Milan at 1.51/2. It's strange. There is an obvious reason to be put off backing Verona. Milan have a new coach in place in the shape of Clarence Seedorf and Verona are far better at home than they are away from the Bentegodi. They've won 8 at home and only 2 away, but one of those victories came in their most recent away games against Udinese, and there are signs that they're growing in confidence.  

Yes, Verona will have to move forward without their Napoli bound playmaker Jorginho, but Milan have already lost at San Siro this season to both Fiorentina and Napoli, and while they're both better sides than Verona, the difference isn't stratospheric. The question is how you want to play it. Milan are there to lay at a short price, and of course you can take a close look at the Asian Handicap. I can only be honest and tell you what I'll be doing.  

I'll be backing Verona at 8.27/1, and if they go a goal down, I'll be backing them again in-play. No one in Serie A has dropped more points from winning situations than Milan, and even though the Seedorf effect could give them a performance bounce, I'm happy to take the chance that it will take the Dutchman more than three days to turn things around.  

Recommended Bet

Back Verona to beat Milan @ 8.27/1 

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Dave Farrar's 2013/14 P/L

Staked: 51pts
Returned: 64.18pts
P/L: +13.18pts

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