Serie A Betting: Back Roma to roll over Inter

Radja Nainggolan, Alessandro Florenzi and Juan Jesus cross swords again at San Siro
Radja Nainggolan, Alessandro Florenzi and Juan Jesus cross swords again at San Siro
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Dave Farrar predicts the Serie A leaders to sweep Roberto Mancini's pretenders aside, Milan to be embarrassed at Lazio, and a spectacular match between Genoa and Napoli...


“Roma have been getting the job done stylishly in Serie A, were good enough to win at Fiorentina last weekend, so should be odds on to beat Inter. They're not, and so we should take full advantage.”

Inter v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

Two weeks of horrible tipping mean that we could do with a strong weekend, and our turnaround will hopefully start at San Siro, where an Inter team who are flattered by their lofty position in the table play host to a Roma team who are not.

Inter have been poor for two consecutive matches now, and while neither Palermo or Bologna were quite good enough to take advantage of their slow tempo and mistake-ridden passing game, Roma are comfortably good enough, and are developing the big match mentality necessary to win games like this.

On the previous occasion that Inter played a top Serie A side (I just can't include Milan or Juve in that list right now) they were blown away by Fiorentina, and with Napoli lying in wait in three weeks' time they could be set for three brutal reality checks.

Mohamed Salah and Daniele De Rossi return from suspension, while Felipe Melo sits out a ban for the Nerazzurri following his red card against Bologna.

Roma have been getting the job done stylishly in Serie A, were good enough to win at Fiorentina last weekend, so should be odds on to beat Inter. They're not, and so we should take full advantage.

Even the history books smile on our bet, as Inter have a notoriously terrible record against Roma. Home and away in all competition, they've won just one of the last 11 meetings.

Recommended Bet
Back Roma to beat Inter @ 2.6413/8


Lazio v Milan
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

In another Roma/Milan clash, I expect Lazio to continue the changing of the Serie A order by gleefully brushing aside one of their club icons, Sinisa Mihajlovic.

I thought that Milan were fortunate to beat Sassuolo last weekend, and while their midweek victory over Chievo has papered over a few cracks, they're still a long way from being a good or reliable team.

Lazio are extremely reliable at the Olimpico. They've won five out of five at home, eight in a row in all competition, and even though they have lost some momentum with a midweek defeat by Atalanta, they should be too good for Milan, who look like a work in progress which isn't necessarily progressing.

Mario Balotelli is still likely to miss out with a sports hernia, while the Aquile have Keita Balde Diao, Stefan de Vrij and Marco Parolo unavailable.

Milan haven't won at the Olimpico since November 2009, notching up three draws from six visits. Last season Lazio emerged 3-1 winners in a game most famous for Philippe Mexes throttling Stefano Mauri after a red card.

Recommended Bet
Back Lazio to beat Milan @ 2.021/1


Genoa v Napoli
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

Napoli have gone against type in recent weeks, with bloodless victories against both Chievo and Palermo, but Genoa's forceful style and imaginative formation should bring the best out of Maurizio Sarri's team once again.

Having taken a while to find their rhythm this season, Genoa's last three games have produced a total of 13 goals, and I expect this to be a high scoring affair at Marassi.

If you allow Napoli to dominate you, and struggle to get the ball off them, then they will dominate you and are capable of winning easily, but if you attack them and search out their defensive vulnerability, then they will counter-punch and try to beat you in an open game.

It's this adaptability of Napoli's attitude that leads to a mix of high and low scoring games, and it's something for us to bank and remember. This, though, will not be easy for Sarri, and I expect Napoli to edge an excellent game by the odd goal in five or seven.

Genoa fans still have nightmares about their 6-1 defeat at the San Paolo in December 2011. Home and away, the Grifone have won only one of their last 11 encounters with Napoli, losing eight.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 4.5 Goals in Genoa v Napoli @ 6.86/1


2015-16 P/L

Staked: 27 points
Returned: 30.34 points
P/L: +3.34 points

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