Dave Farrar predicts Juventus will conquer San Siro again, Torino to upset Milan, and goals galore when Napoli host Fiorentina...
“The fact that Milan come with the name "Milan" means that you can back Torino at 2.568/5 to win, and we should take advantage of that price.”
Inter v Juventus
Live on BT Sport Europe
For the first time in a while, the Derby D'Italia looks like it means something for both clubs involved. With Inter aiming for the title, and Juventus looking to recover from their poor start, this weekend could be fascinating.
Inter's smoke and mirrors start was rudely exposed by Fiorentina and Sampdoria, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Juve doing a job on Roberto Mancini's team.
Inter's early season results flattered to deceive, and Juve are steadily improving. They have won four of their last six games, seem to have captured that elusive rhythm, and even though you can argue about the Champions League and focus drifting elsewhere, I'm still a fan of backing a very good team to beat an average one, if the price is right.
That's the case here, with the market struggling to separate them, and Juve are trading at 2.8815/8 to win at San Siro. They have done well against Inter in recent seasons, and I don't see any reason why that will change here.
Back Juventus to beat Inter @ 2.8815/8
Napoli v Fiorentina
Live on BT Sport 1
God, sounding like a broken record must be as tedious for you to read as it is for me to write, but goals and Napoli have gone together this season like Marek Hamsik and hairspray. There's no reason to believe that this weekend at the San Paolo will be any different, with Fiorentina unlikely to adopt the Carpi tactics of playing for a goalless draw and Napoli seemingly sure to create bundles of chances.
I know that Fiorentina have defended brilliantly this season, conceding only four times and already keeping five clean sheets, but Napoli will provide a test unlike any other that La Viola have faced, and I think that will lead to goals.
Napoli may have conceded only once in their last four games, but they can be vulnerable when going for the jugular, and I expect both teams to score here. With Nikola Kalinic, Lorenzo Insigne and Gonzalo Higuain on the field there'll certainly be a lot of quality in forward areas.
The defensive stats this season point to a low scoring game, and that allows us to take a price about Over 3.5 goals that really shouldn't be on offer. I'm happy to back the overs at 3.185/40, as I believe that these two genuine Scudetto contenders will serve up a thriller.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Fiorentina @ 3.185/40
Torino v Milan
Live on BT Sport Europe
Torino are 100% at home this season so far and if they were playing a mid-ranking team at home, Atalanta for example, then they'd be odds on to win this weekend.
The fact that Milan come with the name "Milan" means that you can back Torino at 2.568/5 to win, and we should take advantage of that price.
Milan have been poor this season, were destroyed last time by Napoli, and any new glory days are a long way over the horizon for the Rossoneri. Torino have been excellent so far, and should start as strong favourites to add to Mihajlovic's pain. The fact that they're priced as they are gives us a chance to have a proper bet.
Back Torino to beat Milan @ 2.568/5
Staked: 21 points
Returned: 30.34 points
P/L: +9.34 points