Dave Farrar predicts plenty of goals at Marassi after their five-goal thriller, no clean sheet for Atalanta and a third straight Napoli victory in the Capital...
“Milan have been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches this season, notably the reverse fixture of this one, when they prevailed 3-2 after being put under immense pressure.”
Sampdoria v Milan
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Both of these teams were involved in thrilling games before the international break and we're likely to see something similar at Marassi this Saturday night, as two of the best strikers in Serie A go head to head.
With Cristiano Ronaldo injured, both Krzysztof Piatek and Fabio Quagliarella know that they have chances to put pressure on him in the race for the Capocannoniere crown, but the presence on the field of those two sparkling talents isn't the only reason for expecting goals.
Samp play an open, high energy style these days, and it has largely served them well. Milan are more adaptable, and are certainly still capable of winning games the old-fashioned way, but one thing that is noticeable about them is the manner in which they play against teams who press high and attack them.
As they did against Inter, they respond in kind, and while I think that Gennaro Gattuso would like to win every game 1-0, Milan have been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches this season, notably the reverse fixture of this one, when they prevailed 3-2 after being put under immense pressure.
There'll be more goals in this one, and the 3.814/5 that's on offer for there to be at least four is too big a price to resist.
Parma can make an impact
Parma v Atalanta
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Price wise, this might not be the sexiest bet of the weekend, but I think that it's a fairly solid one. Parma did the trick for us two weeks ago when they scored in their hammering at Lazio, and with Atalanta the visitors to the Tardini this week, once again "Yes" in the Both teams to score market appeals, this time at 1.768/11.
Parma are in a poor run of form, and given that they have conceded at least twice in six of their last eight League games, we can be fairly sure that free-scoring Atalanta will find the back of the net.
That leaves us with the question of whether the home team can score to complete the outcome that we require. Atalanta have conceded in their last three away games, and their last seven home and away, and for all Parma's inadequacies, they have enough quality to find a way through against a team for whom defending is often an afterthought. Gervinho and Roberto Inglese may have gone off the boil of late, but will pose a threat.
Atalanta know at the moment as they push for Europe that draws aren't really good enough. They'll go all out for a win, and will more than likely get one, but the risks that they'll have to take will allow Parma chances, and we just need them to take one.
Partenopei hat-trick in Rome
Roma v Napoli
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Roma's exit from the Champions League against FC Porto hit them hard, and led to a change of direction, albeit temporarily, with Claudio Ranieri taking over from Eusebio Di Francesco.
That never looked like the brightest move, and so it has proved, a sketchy victory against Empoli followed by defeat last time against SPAL.
Napoli visit on Sunday, for the second sunshine derby of the season, and must start as strong favourites to come here and win for the third time in a row.
There's no question that Napoli's form and focus has tailed off a little in the League, safe in second and with no chance of catching Juventus, but they'll be infinitely more focused for this game than they have been in recent weeks. If they're at the best, or even near it, they should have far too much for a beleaguered Roma.
Napoli's rock solid defence is a slight worry, after they conceded in their last three League games, something that they don't normally do, but again I'll put that down to an absence of focus, rather than anything more troubling, and they have more than enough going forward to apply massive pressure to a Roma defence that has now conceded in their last seven.
Given how quickly Napoli start games when they're at their best, I think that they could have this won early, and they look a decent price to make it three in a row at the Olimpico.
Staked: 84 points
Returned: 86.60 points
P/L: + 2.60 points
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Milan @ 3.814/5
Back “Yes” to Both Teams to Score in Parma v Atalanta @ 1.768/11
Back Napoli to beat Roma @ 2.447/5