Serie A Betting: Cagliari march on, Fiorentina trip Milan and Inter can concede

Cagliari celebrate in September 2019
Expect to see Cagliari celebrating a fourth consecutive Serie A victory this weekend

Dave Farrar predicts a fourth straight victory for the Sardinians, while Vincenzo Montella can add to the crisis at San Siro and leaders Inter aren't as solid as they seem...

“Given the fact that they have now won three games in a row, and we can back them for this at odds against, I think that we should take advantage.”

Sardinians on song

Cagliari v Verona
Sunday, 17.00
Live on Premier 2 and Betfair Live Video

It's a weekend of few opportunities, and certainly few outstanding games, so we need to tread carefully as Serie A begins to take shape. Inter lead the way, but have not been overly convincing, and their progress over the coming weeks is going to be very interesting to monitor.

One team who are unlikely to finish in their current position in the Serie A table is Cagliari, who are flying high in fourth after their remarkable victory at Napoli. Anyone who watched that game will know how fortunate Rolando Marian's team were to win at the San Paolo, but it would be churlish to criticise them too much. They were defensively dogged, and coped well without some key players.

They host Verona this weekend, and given the fact that they have now won three games in a row, and we can back them for this at odds against, I think that we should take advantage. Verona are maybe not as bad as their table position suggests, but the home team must be confident of justifying odds of 2.1411/10.

Verona might be in the bottom five, but they're only four points behind the Sardinians, and they've had some difficult looking fixtures to cope with. In truth, though, they were poor against Milan, and also in their 0-0 draw with Udinese, and I think that this weekend's trip, against a team that is full of confidence, may just be beyond them.

Montella precipitates Milan crisis

Milan v Fiorentina
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier 2 and Betfair Live Video

On Sunday night, Milan host Fiorentina, and the powers that be must be starting to worry that they've made a terrible mistake in appointing Marco Giampaolo. I tipped Milan to finish in the top four, and had factored in a slow start, but I had no inkling that it would be THIS slow.

Giampaolo's team have lost three of their opening five games, including two this week against Inter and Torino, and even though Paolo Maldini is preaching calm and talking about the slow start that Arrigo Sacchi made with the Rossoneri, there must be some internal worries.

In truth, Milan's squad looks thin and tired. I have no idea what players like Hakan Calhanoglu and Samu Castillejo are still doing at the club, and Suso also looks predictable. Krzysztof Piatek scored from the spot in midweek, but he's increasingly looking like a one season wonder, and I worry for them.

With La Viola having started poorly, but boosting their confidence immeasurably with a draw at Atalanta last weekend, and then a midweek win against Samp, I think that Vincenzo Montella will approach a game against his old club with some happy anticipation.

Federico Chiesa is warming to the task, they're more defensively solid, and I just wouldn't rate them as 3.39/4 shots to win at San Siro. If they manage it, then there'll be a full-blown crisis in Milan and Giampaolo will be right on the brink.

Given the extra rest that the visitors have had this week, and the frame of mind in which they must be approaching this, I'm happy to take a risk with them. These two are far too evenly matched for the prices to be the way that they currently are.

Over-rated Inter

Sampdoria v Inter
Saturday, 17:00
Live on FreeSports and Betfair Live Video

I know that Inter are flavour of the month, and that five wins in five have seen them steal a march at the top of the table, but they showed in midweek against Lazio, and on a few occasions prior to that, that they are seriously flawed.

It wouldn't have been an unreasonable result had Lazio won at San Siro on Wednesday, and aside from the issues surrounding Romelu Lukaku up front, there are defensive problems too. There shouldn't be, given the presence of Diego Godin, Milan Skriniar and Stefan de Vrij, but they have been exposed time and again, relying on Samir Handanovic to save them.

Samp have started awfully, and Eusebio Di Francesco may not be far from the sack, but they have scored in all but two of their six games so far this season. While I think they'll lose here, I'm happy to see "yes" to both teams to score available at 1.845/6.

It may seem an eccentric bet, seeing as Inter have conceded only once in the League this season so far and last year's Capocannoniere Fabio Quagliarella is not 100 per cent fit, but problems are just around the corner, and I think we'll see more defensive discussion surrounding the Nerazzurri after their trip to Genoa.


For more tips and insight on the weekend action, watch the latest Football...Only Bettor podcast, as host Caroline Barker is joined by Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassell and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe to discuss all the best betting angles

2019-20 P/L

Staked: 12 Points
Return: 10.38 points
P/L: - 1.62 points

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