Serie A Betting: Roma derby delight

Daniele De Rossi and Antonio Candreva are set to do battle again in the Derby della Capitale
Daniele De Rossi and Antonio Candreva are set to do battle again in the Derby della Capitale

Dave Farrar believes the Giallorossi will rule the Capital, Chievo will end Beppe Iachini's Palermo reign and Sampdoria will shock leaders Fiorentina.

“Lazio have lost their last two in Serie A, may be starting to fade, and should be no match for a slightly inconsistent, but exceptional, Roma.”

Roma v Lazio
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport Europe

The Rome derby has rarely meant more in recent years than it will this weekend. With the capital's top two clubs both in there and challenging for the title, this could be a real momentum turner. Both teams lost last weekend and surely need victory to make sure that Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina don't steal a march.
Both Roma and Lazio cost this column last week, but I'm happy to stick with Rudi Garcia's side for the derby. They're trading at 1.9720/21 for victory, and while these games can be unpredictable, that late Miralem Pjanic penalty in midweek could be a real momentum changer for Roma, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go on the kind of run that could see them take a strong grip on the Scudetto.

They go to Napoli on December 13, but before then have a series of winnable games, starting with this one.
Lazio have lost their last two in Serie A, may be starting to fade, and should be no match for a slightly inconsistent, but exceptional, Roma. They also played in the Europa League cold of Norway on Thursday night, beating Rosenborg 2-0 with a Filip Djordjevic brace.

The major concern is that midfield maestro Pjanic - and his amazing free kicks - is suspended following a red card against Inter. Douglas Maicon is also ruled out and Alessandro Florenzi struggling with injury too, but Seydou Keita returns from a lengthy absence.

It's also worth having a look at a red card at 2.01/1, seeing as Lazio have walking liability Mauricio in defence up against the pace of Mohamed Salah. Despite its fiery reputation, the derby hasn't seen a dismissal in the last three meetings.

Lazio haven't won the Derby della Capitale in Serie A since a 3-2 thriller in November 2012, although they did celebrate the most important victory in the 2013 Coppa Italia Final.

Recommended Bet: Back Roma to beat Lazio @ 1.9720/21

Palermo v Chievo
Sunday, 14:00

This weekend could mark the end for the Palermo Coach Giuseppe Iachini. The club's notoriously trigger-happy President Maurizio Zamparini has shown remarkable patience and made Iachini his longest serving tactician, but failure to win against Chievo would surely mean that it's over.

I think that, despite having the superb Franco Vazquez at their disposal, Palermo could struggle against The Flying Donkeys this weekend.

Chievo haven't won in seven, but they've improved in recent weeks and gave Sampdoria a good game last time. With Palermo so low in confidence, and the Coach's head on the block, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chievo go to the Renzo Barbera and win.

It would be a cruel added twist that Iachini should be deposed by one of his former clubs, having been on the Chievo bench from 2007 to November 2008.

Riccardo Meggiorini is suspended for the visitors, but Roberto Inglese broke his Serie A duck last week and should partner Alberto Paloschi.

The Verona side has only conquered Sicily once in the top flight, 3-1 in May 2011, but there's no better time than now to increase that tally.

Recommended Bet: Back Chievo to beat Palermo @ 3.412/5

Sampdoria v Fiorentina
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

Fiorentina top the table ahead of Week 12 of this enthralling season, and having won their last two games they'll head for Marassi with some confidence.

Fixtures have been kind to La Viola, though, and their win over Inter at the end of September is the only one that has laid down any kind of marker as to their quality. I'm interested to see Samp trading at 4.03/1 for the win, and also by "Yes" in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.774/5.
Samp have drawn too many games lately, but both teams have scored in all but one of their Serie A home games this season, and that's the likeliest outcome here.

Despite having a poor recent tipping run, though, I'm not going to tip up such an outcome at a short price. Samp shouldn't be as big as they are to beat an overrated side, and given that Walter Zenga's team has already beaten Roma at home, and should have beaten Inter, they clearly have the quality to trouble the bigger side in the division.

It's Samp's away form which is costing them: at home they are rock solid and a huge price to pick up a big win. Fiorentina also have a surprisingly poor record in Genoa, winning only one of their last five visits, losing three.

Recommended Bet: Back Sampdoria to beat Fiorentina @ 4.03/1

2015-16 P/L

Staked 30 points
Returned 30.34 points
P/L + 0.34 points

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