The most attacking team in Serie A host a side that can't stop scoring on Saturday night and that can mean only one thing says Dave Farrar... expect goals.
Serie A fans are on for a real treat this weekend. The Inter v Napoli game on Sunday night should be a great watch and on Saturday night Zdenek Zeman and Roma host Vincenzo Montella's Fiorentina in a battle between two coaches who really care about how football looks, about how fans should be entertained. Zeman has tempered his buccaneering style somewhat in recent weeks, but is still the most attacking coach in the division, while Montella's passing game has lifted La Viola to the Top Four, although they have stuttered a little in the last two weeks.
It seems likely that Fiorentina will be without Stefan Jovetic for this game, and that's a crying shame as his mobility would have helped stretched Roma's backline and given his team a great chance. They will miss him, but have proved before that they can win without Jovetic in the side (they beat Milan away without him) and La Viola look an enticing price at 3.814/5.
The other bet that's worth looking at has to be the number of goals in the game. Fiorentina have drawn their last two matches 2-2, and Roma have continued the theme of being the most attacking team in the division, albeit in a more measured way of late. Knowing that about Roma, and with the added knowledge that Fiorentina's last five matches have gone over 3.5 goals, I'm happy to take odds against that this game will go over that mark, with there being every chance that it could have a few more goals than simply four. A Saturday night match to sit and enjoy.
Recomemndation: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.35/4
This isn't the kind of game which gets most people's juices flowing, but I'd love to be at the Adriatico in Pescara as two teams in desperate trouble go head to head. Both Pescara and Genoa are on desperate runs at the moment, and both know all about the magnitude of this game. Pescara have lost seven of their last nine, and Genoa have lost seven of their last eight, and with both teams having already changed managers recently, they're running out of ideas and excuses.
Genoa were humilated at home by Chievo last week, while Pescara played positively, yet were soundly beaten in Naples after having Antonio Bocchetti sent off. In fairness to the new Pescara coach Cristiano Bergodi, his two defeats out of two since taking over have come against Roma and Napoli and he deserves a little more time before he is judged too harshly. The criticism will grow louder if the team loses this weekend.
Pescara have the worst attack in Serie A, and you might look at the absence this weekend of Jonathas as a blow, but given that the Brazilian has turned in some of the worst top flight performances that I've ever seen, I actually see it as a good thing. They'll miss the talented Juan Quintero, but Pescara's key man is Vladimir Weiss, and if the team's lack of recognised strikers this week allows him to get further forward then that will be a bonus.
These are two lower than average teams, but I feel that Pescara have been a little unfortunate this season, whereas Delneri's Genoa are rudderless and uninspired. I find it astonishing that Genoa are 2.526/4 favourites on Betfair, and at the prices I certainly favour Pescara to get only their fourth win of the season.
Recommendation: Back Pescara to beat Genoa @ 3.185/40