Serie A Betting: Back goals at Napoli and Inter to edge past Fiorentina

Marek Hamsik and Stefano Sturaro prepare for what’s sure to be a fiery Napoli v Juventus
Marek Hamsik and Stefano Sturaro prepare for what’s sure to be a fiery Napoli v Juventus
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Dave Farrar has been on an excellent tipping run recently, already more than nine points in profit for the season, and he's looking for more winners, predicting goals galore in Naples and Genoa, but a precise scoreline in Inter v Fiorentina...

“I think that there’ll be goals at the San Paolo once more, and the midweek 0-0 means that we can get a price too. They are a must bet.”

Napoli v Juventus
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

Napoli were held to a 0-0 draw in Carpi in midweek, and that bucked a trend. Until that point, three had been the fewest amount of goals in ANY Napoli game this season, but Carpi set out looking for a goalless draw, and that's the key difference between that midweek match and the rest of this campaign.

Juventus will play for the win as they start to hit form, that will leave space, something Napoli are spectacular in their progressive use of.

This may be a simplistic reading of the game, but suffice to say, I think that there'll be goals at the San Paolo once more, and the midweek 0-0 means that we can get a price too. They are a must bet.

Alvaro Morata should be back, though Mario Mandzukic, Claudio Marchisio and Sami Khedira remain sidelined.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Napoli v Juventus @ 2.245/4
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Juventus @ 3.953/1


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Genoa v Milan
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport Europe

Genoa v Milan also looks a likely high scoring encounter. None of Genoa's games this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals and they're maybe not as expansive as they have been previously, but Milan have just been involved in two high scoring thrillers in a row, and they'll bring the best out of Genoa, who's previous opponents have been some of the more conservative in Serie A.

Milan are finding a way to win at the moment, but I'm not sure that it will last, and they could well go down at Marassi to a hopelessly out of form team who are the feeling the effect of some high profile departures.

Gian Piero Gasperini will get it right at some point, but rather than guessing that it will happen on Saturday, I'm happy to stick with Over 2.5 Goals in this one.

Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals in Genoa v Milan @ 2.1211/10


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Inter v Fiorentina
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

Not too many people would have predicted that this would be a clash between the top Two in Serie A, but that's where we are. I don't necessarily think that either Inter or Fiorentina will be challenging for the title after Christmas, but it will be fascinating to see if Inter can continue their steamroller-like, and very Roberto Mancini-like, progress.

They've won four of their five games by one goal to nil, and with this likely to be a low scoring game between two teams who put safety first, there's some value in supporting that scoreline again here.

Mancini relies on a clean sheet at one end and one of his rare creative players nicking a goal at the other, and Fiorentina are vulnerable to that approach.

La Viola are a kind of Inter-lite at the moment, and I can see them adopting a "have what we hold" approach, only to succumb late on. You can back Inter to win 1-0 @ 7.413/2, and that's a price worth taking.

Recommended Bet
Back Inter to beat Fiorentina 1-0 @ 7.413/2

2015-16 P/L

Staked: 14pts
Returned: 23.4pts
P/L: +9.4pts

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