In his latest preview of the Italian action, Dave Farrar believes the odds don't reflect the form in Torino v Udinese, Fiorentina v Lazio and Inter v Napoli...
“Capable of destroying Sassuolo, equally capable of falling apart against Cagliari. The truth is, though, that if you take away that Sassuolo performance then Inter's results have been poor, and Walter Mazzarri is walking the tightrope right now.”
Torino v Udinese
Andrea Stramaccioni always seemed a little lost during his time at Inter Milan, but beneath all of the issues (ones that are still plaguing Inter) he gave the impression of being a decent man, and a good coach. Now that Stramaccioni has a nonsense-free project on which to work, it's no great surprise to see the success that he's having in Udine, and his new team heads to Torino this weekend in great spirits.
Udinese's position of fourth in Serie A is probably a false one. Their points have largely been won at the Friuli, but wins over Napoli, Lazio and Parma show that they have the right to be considered as a contender to finish "best of the rest", and they may just frank those credentials away at Torino this weekend.
The home team are trading at 2.3211/8 to come away with the win, and that looks short, especially with Kamil Glik and Omar El Kaddouri suspended.
I like the look of Udinese at 3.711/4 to conjure a second away victor yof the season. The reversal of Antonio Di Natale's retirement has provided the club with a boost, and his four goals this season illustrate just how important he remains. The international break means that he comes into this game fresh, but don't underestimate the strength of the rest of Stramaccioni's team. The French duo of Thomas Heurteaux and Cyril Thereau have been impressive, and there's a work ethic about Udinese that always seems likely to create chances for Toto to finish.
Torino have had a poor start, weighed down a little by expectation after last season's overachievement, and while there were signs last time against Napoli that they were getting better, I still think that Udinese are overpriced here.
It will probably be low scoring and I think that Udinese will edge it. If you're feeling brave, then the 1-0 Correct Score is trading at 10.09/1, but I'm happy to play the Udinese win at chunky odds.
Back Udinese to beat Torino @ 3.711/4
Fiorentina v Lazio
Live on BT Sport 1
The early game on Sunday is between two improving teams in the shape of Fiorentina and Lazio, and I'm a little baffled by the prices. The hosts are 2.111/10 for victory, with Lazio at 4.1 and I'm not sure that I can see the logic in that.
Fiorentina beat Inter last time, but there's a danger of reading too much into that performance. La Viola were better, no question, but they benefited from two world class long range strikes, and an utterly abject Inter display. Walter Mazzarri's side were so bad that it beggared belief, and with Fiorentina still struggling to create clear cut chances, Lazio will be a lot tougher to break down this time around.
Stefano Pioli's team have won their last two, and there's a sense that his philosophy is starting to get through to his players. Don't be at all surprised if they're able to frustrate Fiorentina and come away with something.
The problem that Lazio face is breaking down a stubborn Viola backline which has conceded just one goal in five matches, and hasn't let a goal in at home in 360 minutes. With Lazio relying on Filip Djordjevic for goals, they may struggle to find a way through, and I see this as an attritional game, which goes against what you might expect from what could be described as a glamour fixture. If you have a romantic image in your head of Fiorentina as the great entertainers, then it may be best to shelve it until Giuseppe Rossi is fit again.
For all my issues about Lazio going forward, though, I can't let Fiorentina go off at 2.111/10 for this without opposing them. They remain unconvincing, and with a 0-0 draw a strong runner here, I'll take the opportunity to lay Vincenzo Montella's team at a price that is too short, while keeping the draw on my side.
Lay Fiorentina against Lazio @ 2.111/10
Inter v Napoli
Live on BT Sport 1
Neither of these teams has managed to find much form this season, with Inter turning into one of the most insane betting propositions that I can remember. Capable of destroying Sassuolo, equally capable of falling apart against Cagliari.
The truth is, though, that if you take away that Sassuolo performance then Inter's results have been poor, and Walter Mazzarri is walking the tightrope right now. The international break may have helped them out, as they have been destroyed on the last two matchdays, and if they turn in a similar performance here, then Napoli will win and Mazzarri may well be looking for a job.
I know that Napoli haven't been at their best this season so far, but at least there's a semblance of stability about them, and I'm surprised to see them as big as 3.02/1 to win this. Add to that injuries for Danilo D'Ambrosio, Daniel Osvaldo, Jonathan and doubts over the fitness of Mateo Kovacic and Fredy Guarin, you have a Nerazzurri side in crisis.
There's a danger that Inter will put in one of their grandstand displays and find a way to win, but those kind of performances are becoming increasingly rare, and common sense dictates that Napoli are too big.
I also think that the way that these sides match up means that there are likely to be goals at San Siro, and with over 2.5 goals trading at 2.021/1 I'll take advantage of that price as well.
I'm tempted to try and be clever and "dutch" some correct scores, but the way that Inter are playing makes that seem foolish, It'll be fun to watch, but anything could happen.
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.021/1
Back Napoli to beat Inter @ 3.02/1
Follow Dave on Twitter @perfectpunter
Serie A 2014/15 P/L
Staked: 18 points
Returned: 15.02 points
P/L: - 2.98 points.