After going into profit for the season thanks to a goal crazy game at Napoli last week, Dave Farrar is predicting more excitement at Cagliari and Roma, while he thinks Sampdoria can surprise Napoli on Monday night...
“Napoli are a silly price at 2.26/5, especially given their European exertions on Thursday night (and Benitez didn't rotate, the stars played) and I'm torn between a lay of the visitors and backing Samp at 3.711/4 for the win.”
Cagliari v Fiorentina
It's taken a while, but Cagliari are starting to look like a real Zdenek Zeman team now, and their performance in Naples last week was a vintage one.
It was also useful for this column, landing both overs bets at big prices, and I see no reason to desert the "Cagliari equals goals" theme here.
Both teams have scored in every match at the Sant'Elia this season so far, and with Fiorentina starting to find their feet in front of goal, I think that we're set for another match full of incident. La Viola have conceded only 11 times this season, but I wouldn't worry too much about that, as there were signs in their win at Verona last week that Vincenzo Montella had loosened the shackles a little, and that Fiorentina were starting to play in the style with which their coach traditionally feels comfortable.
With Cagliari certain to play expansively, and Fiorentina very sharp on the counter attack and good enough (even without Giuseppe Rossi) in front of goal, over 3.5 goals is very reasonably priced at 3.185/40, and we should take full advantage.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Cagliari v Fiorentina @ 3.185/40
Roma v Inter
Live on BT Sport 1
Sunday will be rounded off at the Olimpico, where Roma are 1.824/5 to beat Roberto Mancini's Inter. Given the recent trajectory of both clubs, it's no surprise that Roma are unbeaten in six against the Nerazzurri and, while I think that run will continue here, it's by no means a certainty that Roma will win.
As I've previously documented in this column, Inter are not to be trusted, and are capable, particularly with Mancini in charge, of putting up a strong performance. They played well against Milan last week, and will make life hard for Rudi Garcia's men. I'm interested to see that Both Teams to Score is available at 1.910/11 and am keen to take advantage of that price.
Roma are by no means watertight defensively, and with Inter likely to pose an attacking threat, I could see this ending in a narrow home win or a scoring draw. Either way, I'm happier recommending BTTS rather than the home win, although I wouldn't put you off experimenting with a couple of Correct Score options.
Back Both Teams to Score in Roma v Inter @ 1.910/11
Sampdoria v Napoli
Live on BT Sport 1
There should be a terrific atmosphere at Marassi on Monday night when Sinisa Mihaijlovic's high flying Samp face Napoli, and the home side look a big price to come away with a win against a frustratingly inconsistent visiting team. I was at an event recently when Dietmar Hamann described Rafa Benitez as a "footballing genius", but he hasn't looked like one in Italy.
Napoli are capable of sparkling, but too often they flatter to deceive, and a team which features two of Serie A's biggest talents, Gonzalo Higuain and Marek Hamsik, ought to be challenging for the title rather than being content with third.
Napoli are a silly price at 2.26/5, especially given their European exertions on Thursday night (and Benitez didn't rotate; the stars played) and I'm torn between a lay of the visitors and backing Samp at 3.711/4 for the win.
After last week's success, it feels greedy to try and get too gung-ho, and so I'm happy to keep the draw on side and lay Benitez's team.
They'll finish tird this season, but that shouldn't be regarded as a success.
Lay Napoli against Sampdoria @ 2.226/5
Dave Farrar 2014-15 P/L
Staked: 30 points
Returned: 33.54 points
P/L: + 3.54 points