Dave Farrar suggests Juventus-Roma will be tighter than expected, Inter taking down Fiorentina and a Zemanlandia special in Verona-Cagliari...
"I'm sorely tempted to back Roma, but given the strong possibility of a tentative final 30 minutes should the scores be level, I want to keep the draw on my side. So I'll be an odds on layer of Juve."
Juventus v Roma
Sunday October 5, KO 17.00
Live on BT Sport 1
Roma's recent record against Juventus, particularly when the teams meet in Turin, would suggest that this game can only have one outcome. Roma 's last Serie A win at Juve was four years ago, and given the start that the defending champions have made to their season, I can absolutely see why Juventus are 1.9520/21 to make it six wins from six.
There's an argument to be made, though, that Roma have made the more impressive start. They're certainly better to watch, and their Champions League performances have surpassed those of Max Allegri's team.
Juve were beaten in Madrid in midweek, while Roma's performance at Manchester City was excellent, and they look overpriced for this Sunday afternoon game at 4.77/2. I'd make Juve favourites, but not to the extent that they are, and am keen to bet against them in the game of the season so far.
I'm sorely tempted to back Roma but given the strong possibility of a tentative final 30 minutes should the scores be level, I want to keep the draw on my side. So I'll be an odds on layer of Juve.
I was hoping that Roma's panache would lead to Uunder 2.5 Goals being overpriced, but the market has that about right, with unders trading at 1.855/6.
My pre-season outright tip was to back Juve to win the Scudetto, and I still think that will turn out to be the case in the long term. There's little question that Roma are the better side right now, though, and so odds on supporters of the Champions will be taking a huge risk.
Lay Juventus @ 1.9520/21
Fiorentina v Inter
Sunday October 5, KO 19.45
Live on BT Sport 1
Fiorentina have had a desperate start to their season, one which has surprised Viola watchers, and currently threatening their perennial tag of being one of the best teams to watch in Italy.
They have managed only two goals all season, and while you look to injuries to explain some of that away, I wonder whether their all round play has lost some of its spark. They'll finish higher than they currently are, but probably not in the top four.
While La Viola have been consistently dull, Inter have been a nightmare to predict. After starting positively, they were blown away by Cagliari last week in a first half stunner that put this column into profit, but not in the way that was intended.
Walter Mazzarri has admitted that his players were tired, and that he made mistakes in team selection, and even though I'm always a little unsure about Mazzarri, I have some sympathy on this occasion. They won 2-1 here last season, and they're a better side now.
Fiorentina won't trouble them defensively in the way that Cagliari did (how strange that sentence seems) and I believe that Dani Osvaldo and Mauro Icardi can give Fiorentina nightmares. Inter look overpriced to me at 3.211/5, and that's where my money will be going.
Back Inter to Win @ 3.211/5
Verona v Cagliari
Saturday October 4, 17.00
There now follows the shortest match preview that I've ever written, for fear of sounding like a broken record. Ahem.
When Zemanlandia doesn't work, his teams become unpredictable and a punter's nightmare. When Zemanlandia works, goals are guaranteed. Right now, it's working, so we repeat last week's bet. Different opposition, very probably same outcome. That's all.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Verona v Cagliari @ 3.02/1
Serie A 2014/15 P/L