Dave Farrar predicts Sinisa Mihajlovic will ruin old friend Roberto Mancini's return to Marassi, Fiorentina to keep winning, and goals in Milan-Cagliari...
“Remember that Samp are unbeaten at home, and even though Inter have won on their last three visits here, I remain unconvinced by the Mancini Inter project.”
Sampdoria v Inter
Live on BT Sport 1
It's not the most prepossessing Serie A weekend that I've ever seen, either from a watching or a punting angle, but Sampdoria look solid at 2.89/5 to continue their excellent recent run and see off Inter.
Samp have won three games in a row now and they rubberstamped their form credentials with an excellent 2-0 win at Roma on Monday night.
With a tough run of fixtures coming up (Samp have Fiorentina, Milan and Napoli in three of their next four), Sinisa Mihajlovic will be keen to put his old team Inter away. Samp are also strong enough to ruin Roberto Mancini's Marassi return.
Remember that Samp are unbeaten at home, and even though Inter have won on their last three visits here, I remain unconvinced by the Mancini Inter project. They're better, but not as good as many would have you believe.
If you add in the harsh reality of a Europa League defeat against Wolfsburg to recover from, Samp rate a decent bet at the prices.
Back Sampdoria to beat Inter @ 2.89/5
Udinese v Fiorentina
Usually, I'd avoid a team who've been involved in a tricky Europa League game the previous midweek, but Fiorentina made such early and easy work of Roma on Thursday that I'm keen to support them in Udine.
Vincenzo Montella's team are in sublime form right now, and even though Udinese beat Torino in their last home game, they've won only one of their last six, and I feel that La Viola will be too strong for them here.
They may have been slightly fortunate to beat Milan last weekend, but in a funny way that's something that encourages me about Fiorentina. They've often outplayed teams and failed to beat them, so it's good to see them getting into a winning habit.
Aside from that blip at Lazio, they've been excellent, and I like them at 2.285/4 here: Udinese lost 1-0 here against Lazio recently, and I see this as a similar kind of match, with the home team being shut down, and the visitors just too good.
Back Fiorentina to beat Udinese @ 2.285/4
Milan v Cagliari
Live on BT Sport 1
Those are my two big fancies of the weekend, but with Zdenek Zeman reappointed at Cagliari, I can't resist a poke at over 3.5 Goals in their trip to Milan.
They drew 1-1 against Empoli last week, and even though none of Cagliari's last eight have featured over 3.5 goals, the Zeman influence normally takes a while to take effect, and I expect his team to go for it at San Siro.
For all Milan's failings, they can score goals (and concede them) at home, and two of their last four games here have gone over 3.5.
I think that they're reasonably priced at around 3.052/1. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if Cagliari won here, but goals is the best way to go.
Back over 3.5 Goals in Milan v Cagliari @ 3.052/1
Staked: 72p ts
Returned: 68.31 pts
P/L: -3.69 pts