Serie A Betting: Lazio to shock Juve again

Lazio can make it nine wins in a row with Felipe Anderson running at a tired Juventus
Lazio can make it nine wins in a row with Felipe Anderson running at a tired Juventus
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Dave Farrar predicts the leaders will see their home record ended by form side Lazio, plus plenty of goals in the Milan Derby and Cagliari v Napoli...


“Max Allegri's team will be deserving Scudetto winners once more, as they've clearly been the best team over the course of the season, but Lazio are the top side in the division at the moment, and they shouldn't be 4.57/2 to come away from Turin with a win.”

Juventus v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Lazio's run of eight consecutive wins has been simply remarkable. Stefano Pioli should win the Coach of the Year award by a street and should his team beat Juventus on Saturday night then I suppose there's an outside chance that they could even challenge for the title.

The second outcome seems highly unlikely, but the first isn't so ridiculous. Juve could blame their defeat at Parma last weekend on an imminent Champions League game, and with a tough second leg in Monaco to come next week they may be similarly vulnerable. Paul Pogba is still out, and with Lazio having only conceded two goals in that eight match streak I feel that the Champions may be vulnerable again.

Max Allegri's team will be deserving Scudetto winners once more, as they've clearly been the best team over the course of the season, but Lazio are the top side in the division at the moment, and they shouldn't be 4.57/2 to come away from Turin with a win.

They have enough offensive weapons to bother Juve, and while I think that the 0-0 Correct Score is a big runner at around the 11.010/1 mark, I think that Lazio may just edge this at a decent price.

It's a game that Juventus won't want to lose, but it IS one that they can afford to lose. The absence of the influential Stefan de Vrij is a worry for Lazio, but it's one that they can overcome, and while victory won't pile the heat on Juve, it will make them near certainties to finish second come the end of a stupendous season.

Recommended Bet
Back Lazio to beat Juve @ 4.57/2


Inter v Milan
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

The Milan derby takes second billing at best this weekend, and neither team deserves any sympathy or support. Dreadfully run, often awful to watch, and certainly not successful. The fact it's ninth against 10th just about sums it up.

There is a bet here for us, though. I can't support Inter at 2.3211/8, and if I had to choose in the outright market, I may just go for Milan at 3.412/5 on the basis that it's a 50/50 game in their home stadium. That, though, would be guesswork, and I'm not a huge fan of a wing and a prayer.

The most interesting statistic surrounding this game is that both teams have scored in five of Milan's last six away games and in Inter's last three home games. Both Teams to Score shouldn't really be as big as 1.84/5 and so that's the bet, in the hope that an unassuming game can at least be a profitable one.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score in Inter v Milan @ 1.84/5


Cagliari v Napoli
Sunday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1

The game between these two at the San Paolo gave this column a wonderfully profitable weekend, as Over 5.5 goals paid out, and I can't see how we won't be in for something similar here.

There's a danger that Napoli will be tired from their Europa League exertions on Thursday, but enthusiasm will be sky high after crushing Wolfsburg 4-1 in Germany. Zemanlandia is well and truly back at Cagliari, and they'll be relegated playing wonderfully entertaining football.

The great man's first two games back in charge finished 3-1, and last week in Genoa we could have had a cricket score. The Genoa goalkeeper Eugenio Lamanna was inspired, and the woodwork was rattled four times. It finished 2-0, but could have been 5-2.

That means that Over 5.5 Goals has appeal again. Napoli's games haven't been particularly high scoring of late, but when they spark, they're more than capable of being involved in an end to end game, and they'll look to counter attack Cagliari at every turn.

Both teams are vulnerable, both can be spectacular going forward, and an early goal could lead to a few more.

This is the fourth week in a row that I've tipped goals in Cagliari games, but we've won twice and been unlucky once, so I feel that it's a ploy worth repeating. The theme may not last until the end of the season and needs to be closely watched, but I'm sticking with it for now.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 5.5 Goals in Cagliari v Napoli @ 11.010/1


2014-15 P/L

Staked: 81
Returned: 77.15
P/L: -3.85

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