Serie A Betting: Milan and Napoli should serve up high-octane entertainment

Dries Mertens has been on fine form and points the way to goals in Milan v Napoli
Dries Mertens has been on fine form and points the way to goals in Milan v Napoli
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Dave Farrar predicts Sampdoria to keep Juventus quiet, Milan and Napoli to go all out on goals and Palermo to end Sassuolo's record run.

“I do believe that San Siro on Sunday night presents us with an outstanding bet. Napoli and Milan are the perfect match for a high-scoring game: defensively suspect, good enough in front of goal, it should provide some high octane entertainment.”

Juventus v Sampdoria
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Juve were fortunate to keep their Serie A lead to three points last week: their 0-0 draw at Fiorentina was by no means a terrible result, but Sassuolo did them a huge favour the following evening by holding Roma at the Olimpico. Juve may need a similar favour this weekend as I think that they're too short to beat Sampdoria in the Sunday morning game.

Last weekend, Napoli and Empoli played out a 2-2 draw in this time slot, but I doubt this will be as much fun. I know that Sampdoria won 3-1 at Verona on Monday night, but that game was affected by a relatively early red card, and Sinisa Mihajlovic will almost certainly revert to type here. Stop Juve first of all, and then hope that one of his gifted strikers can produce at the other end. If you offered the Samp Coach a 0-0 draw right now, he would happily take it.  

The 0-0 Correct Score has to come under consideration here, as Juve's last two games in all competitions have both ended with that scoreline, and with Samp a better side than Fiorentina (maybe not Atletico Madrid just yet), there's every chance that they can frustrate successfully. I was tempted to back Samp to pull off a surprise win with Giorgio Chiellini suspended, but Juve are so absurdly short to win at 1.364/11 that it's the cheap lay to end all cheap lays. 0-0 in the Correct Score market at around 13.012/1 may not be the silliest bet either.  

I know that opposing Juve, especially in Turin, goes against statistical trends and apparent logic, but reality suggests that the two teams could be more closely matched than the prices suggest.

Recommended Bet: Lay Juventus against Sampdoria @ 1.364/11


Milan v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

I'm not going to spend long on the game of the weekend, but I do believe that San Siro on Sunday night presents us with an outstanding bet. Rafa Benitez has talked all week about the attacking instincts of his side, and the Spaniard seems to have gone against type in allowing his team to play with real freedom. It's producing results at the moment, as well as goals, and while Napoli haven't been as carefree away from home as they have at the San Paolo, they and Milan are the perfect match for a high-scoring game: defensively suspect, good enough in front of goal, it should provide some high octane entertainment.  

There's a danger that Napoli will be sluggish after a midweek Europa League excursion, but I don't think that match should affect this one too much. Napoli look a little short at 2.6813/8 to repeat their success of last season, but the 3.412/5 that's available for the game to have over 3.5 goals looks bang on.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals in Milan v Napoli @ 3.412/5


Palermo v Sassuolo
Saturday, 17:00

Neither of these sides has been beaten since October, and both have really begun to impress. Sassuolo were excellent in Rome last week, and some might be surprised to see them as big as 4.1 to win in Sicily. The reason for that price is the absence of the influential Domenico Berardi, and it's not an overreaction. Berardi makes Sassuolo a better team, and they look weak heading to Sicily, as Sime Vrsaljko and Federico Peluso also sit out bans.

Palermo have won 3 of their last 4 at home, and they look good to extend that record, with the outstanding Paolo Dybala seemingly set to play a big part for Giuseppe Iachini.  

It's not the sexiest price of the weekend, but 2.0621/20 about a home win looks rock solid

Recommended Bet: Back Palermo to beat Sassuolo @ 2.0621/20 

2014-15 P/L

Dave Farrar is a Commentator at BT Sport and author of the bestselling gambling book "The Perfect Punter". You can follow him on Twitter @perfectpunter. From 18 points staked on Serie A this season, Dave is currently showing a profit of 7.31 points.

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