Serie A betting: Back a stalemate in the big Roma-Juventus showdown

Roma v Juventus is always guaranteed to be a fiery encounter, as it was last time they met
Roma v Juventus is always guaranteed to be a fiery encounter, as it was last time they met

Dave Farrar predicts the Scudetto showdown will see a share of the spoils, but overs at Palermo and Sassuolo...

“I'm someone who rarely tips a draw, but given the likelihood that a depleted Juve would be happy with that, and Roma may just be good enough to get it, then 3.39/4 seems a fair price, and 6.86/1 about the game finishing 1-1 may also be worth a second look.”

Roma v Juventus
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Strictly speaking, if we're approaching this season with a portfolio based betting strategy, then we don't really need to worry too much about Monday night's big Serie A match.

This column recommended Juventus to win the title at the start of the season, and with a nine-point lead, a win at the Olimpico pretty much makes sure of that outcome. There's no need to back Juve at 2.466/4 to win a game that they don't really need to win.

The fact that the Champions come into this without Andrea Pirlo (definitely) and Paul Pogba (very probably) also steers me away from having too much faith in them here, but given the way that Roma have played in 2015, it's hard to have a great deal of faith in them either.

There's an argument which goes that Roma will be so motivated by their unfortunate defeat at Juve that they'll be super motivated here, but I'm not sure that I buy that, and I think that it would be foolish to oppose Juve.

I'm someone who rarely tips a draw, but given the likelihood that a depleted Juve would be happy with that, and Roma may just be good enough to get it, then 3.39/4 seems a fair price, and 6.86/1 about the game finishing 1-1 may also be worth a second look.

Recommended Bet

Back Draw in Juventus v Roma @ 3.39/4


Sassuolo v Lazio
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 2

I was absolutely convinced that Sassuolo's trip to Naples last week would have bundles of goals, and so the 2-0 Napoli win came as something of a surprise. No apologies though for ploughing the same furrow here, as Champions League hopefuls Lazio are in town.

The reasons for backing goals in Sassuolo's matches remain sound, and a necessary defensive reshuffle this weekend heightens the chances of an entertaining game.

This fixture finished 2-2 last season, and earlier in this campaign Lazio won an Olimpico thriller by a 3-2 scoreline.

Five out of Lazio's last six away games have gone over the 2.5 mark, while those Sassuolo stats still make appealing reading, despite last week's outcome. Five of their last seven have been over 2.5.

Sassuolo may just be tiring, and Lazio are the likelier winners here, as is reflected in their trading at 2.285/4. The more attractive bet, though, is over 2.5 goals at odds against.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Sassuolo v Lazio @ 2.021/1


Palermo v Empoli
Sunday, 14:00

I also think that there'll be goals at the Renzo Barbera this weekend. Empoli have been a little shot-shy lately, but they found their goalscoring feet last weekend against Chievo, and despite their occasionally negative approach, have managed to score in all but two of their away games this season.

If that trend continues, and Palermo's shaky backline gives it every chance of doing so, then over 2.5 Goals at 2.021/1 looks a really solid bet here.

Five of Palermo's last seven home games have gone over that mark (the other 2 finished 1-1) and with the excellent Edgar Barreto absent from their midfield they're likely to be a little more vulnerable than usual.

Empoli should find a way to goal, but I don't think that the Tuscans will be able to stop the brilliant Vazquez/Dybala combination. That makes "overs" the call.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Palermo v Empoli @ 2.021/1

2014-15 P/L

Staked: 66pts
Returned: 62.74pts
P/L: -3.26pts

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