Dave Farrar predicts an exciting Derby della Lanterna, Duvan Zapata to take centre stage for Napoli and Chievo to surprise Empoli...
“The more attractive bet is Both Teams to Score at 1.9310/11. That eventuality has occurred in Sampdoria's last four matches, and in seven of Genoa's last eight. These sides are fundamentally set up to attack, and even taking into account the nervousness of a derby, BTTS should be shorter than that.”
Sampdoria v Genoa
Live on BT Sport 1
After attending it on a couple of occasions, I feel at least a little qualified to say that the Derby Della Lanterna is one of Europe's most underestimated local rivalries. The stunning surroundings of the Marassi, the hemmed in nature of the pitch, and a crowd that manages to be friendly and venomous all at the same time.
So it's an occasion that will be worth a watch on BT Sport on Saturday night, and the game may just live up to some kind of billing too.
Samp and Genoa sit 6th and 7th in the table, and both can still dream realistically of a Top Four tilt. A win here would give them momentum, and I can see this being a more high scoring game than the market suggests. Over 2.5 Goals at 2.245/4 is certainly worth a second look.
The more attractive bet, though, is to get with Both Teams to Score at 1.9310/11. That eventuality has occurred in Sampdoria's last four matches, and in seven of Genoa's last eight.
These sides are fundamentally set up to attack, and even taking into account the nervousness of a derby, BTTS should be shorter than that.
"Yes" to Both Teams to Score in Sampdoria v Genoa @ 1.9310/11
Napoli v Sassuolo
Live on ESPN
Napoli have had a strange week. They were awful when being dismantled 3-1 by Palermo last weekend, and yet won impressively 4-0 away to Trabzonspor on Thursday.
One constant theme with Rafa Benitez's side is that their games feature goals, and even though there may be a tiredness issue or two here, I see no reason to desert them.
The suspension of Gonzalo Higuain may logically be described as a disadvantage for any kind of goals bet, but here I think that it's a potential advantage. Duvan Zapata will replace him, and after only three Serie A starts this season, the Colombian may just be ready to make an impact.
He has scored four goals already, and could be the perfect kind of player to take advantage of Sassuolo's sometime suspect defence. He's powerful, quick, and better than many believe.
The bare facts support an "overs" bet as well. Six of Napoli's last seven in Serie A have gone over 2.5, while five of Sassuolo's last six in all competitions have done likewise. It feels relatively risk free, and despite the short price, I'm happy to invest.
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Napoli v Sassuolo @ 1.758/11
Empoli v Chievo
It's not a particularly sexy Serie A weekend, which is why this match makes the cut in terms of a preview. I also feel that there might be a decent bet for us.
Chievo have won their last two, and are into the kind of attritional rhythm which seems to save them every season. They are better away from home than they are at the Bentegodi, and I think that they rate a bet at 4.67/2 to come away from Tuscany with a third consecutive victory.
Empoli did well to draw at Milan last week, but are far from convincing in front of goal, and Chievo are just the kind of team who can frustrate them, and nick a winner on the counter.
I wouldn't put you off backing Chievo to win 1-0 at around 10.519/2, but that 4.67/2 is a price that jumps out at me.
Back Chievo to beat Empoli @ 4.67/2
Staked: 63 pts
Returned: 60.81 pts
P/L: -2.19 pts