Serie A Betting: All about the goals this weekend

Goals tend to be guaranteed at the Sardegna Arena when Cagliari are in town
Goals tend to be guaranteed at the Sardegna Arena when Cagliari are in town

Dave Farrar predicts Cagliari and SPAL will find the net in Sardinia, a thriller for Sampdoria, but Lazio to buck the trend with Genoa...

“I could see SPAL winning on a tense afternoon, and they’re priced attractively at around 4.03/1 to do so, but I just don’t fancy them ENOUGH to come away with a win, and so prefer to tip both teams to score.”

Cagliari v SPAL
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

There's a huge relegation game in Sardinia this weekend as 16th placed Cagliari take on a SPAL team who are two places below them in the table. Win, and Cagliari will start to look upwardly mobile, should they lose, they'll be pulled into a relegation battle.

There'll be plenty of tension in the air, and while that sort of mood doesn't often lead to much of a spectacle, there's enough evidence to suggest that both teams will score.

After keeping Lazio to a 0-0 draw on the opening day of the season, SPAL have conceded in each of their next ten away games, but they're a threat too: the in-form Mirco Antenucci will lead the line, and three goals in his last five games shows that he's in some sort of shape.

SPAL have scored in 12 of the last 13 Serie A rounds, and they're good enough to do so again against a team that has picked up just one point in their last five home League games.

I could see SPAL winning on a tense afternoon, and they're priced attractively at around 4.03/1 to do so, but I just don't fancy them ENOUGH to come away with a win, and so prefer to tip both teams to score, which is a very likely outcome.

Recommended Bet:
Both Teams to Score in Cagliari v SPAL @ 1.84/5


Sampdoria v Torino
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

Sampdoria's wonderful season keeps on growing and growing and after taking four points in two games against Roma, they welcome a Torino side which has certainly improved under Walter Mazzarri.

It was a surprise when Torino changed coaches, and it's looking a pretty good decision at the moment, but they face a test at Marassi against a free-flowing Samp. Torino have won two of their three League games under their new coach though, and will fancy that they can stem Samp's momentum.

Only Lazio have scored more goals at home this season than Sampdoria, and I think that we'll see a similar game to the one that the two teams played out earlier in the campaign. They shared four goals that day, and this feels like it'll be open.

Andrea Belotti has got nowhere near the heights this season, but Mbaye Niang and Iago Falque have come good, and Fabio Quagliarella has been in blistering form for Samp, breaking his personal season tally at the age of 35.

In short, there'll be chances, and there's plenty of quality in forward areas to take at least four of them. An outcome that's attractively priced.

Recommended Bet:
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Torino @ 2.982/1


Lazio v Genoa
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Genoa were devastated to lose at home to Udinese last week, as they dominated the game, missed chances, and then failed to find a way past ten men. They have been vastly improved under Davide Ballardini though, and they can make life tough for Simone Inzaghi and Lazio on Monday night.

Lazio have largely been free-scoring this season, and they've managed at least three goals in their last three home games, but Genoa will go to Rome to defend, and having done an exceptional job of keeping Juventus down to one goal in their last away match, I think we'll see another low-scoring encounter here.

All signs point to more goals at the Olimpico, but Ballardini is a defensive master, and Genoa had managed four consecutive clean sheets before that trip to Turin a couple of weeks ago. Every single one of their games under Ballardini has featured under 2.5 goals, and even taking Lazio's firepower into account, I expect a similar outcome here.

Genoa play well away from home: 62% of their points have come on the road this season, and while it's a stretch to see them winning here, I don't think that Lazio will run riot, and expect them to win narrowly, if at all.

Remember, Lazio's players will be tired after two emotionally-charged games against Milan, and we could see a flat performance to follow. Under 2.5 goals should not be trading at odds against.

Recommended Bet:
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Lazio v Genoa @ 2.26/5


2017-18 P/L

Staked: 63 points
Returned: 79.66 points
P/L: + 16.66 points

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