Serie A Betting: Lazio are a Sunday night lay

Can 34-year-old Miroslav Klose perform again so soon after his exertions in north London?

Dave Farrar offers bets for a trio of Serie A games and he's looking to oppose fast-starting Lazio at a short price...

"When a price is too short, it always helps if you can find a reason for it: we can do that easily here. Lazio’s League position means that they are heavily favoured, more heavily than they should be. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of Genoa’s 2-1 win last season."

Lay Lazio @ 1.584/7

Lazio v Genoa
Lazio sparkled against Chievo last weekend, and then did the required job against Spurs at White Hart Lane on Thursday night. Vladimir Petkovic has surpassed expectations, and three wins out of three means that Lazio are sitting pretty alongside Napoli and Juventus at the top of the table. I think that there have to be serious doubts about Lazio's staying power, though, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they drift towards the realms of a top ten finish, rather than one in the top four.
With Genoa playing brilliantly against Juventus last weekend, before losing belief and the match, I think that they have a chance of causing a mini Sunday night upset at the Stadio Olimpico. Genoa are trading at 7.613/2 for the win, with Lazio 1.594/7 to lay, and I think that both markets are worth playing. Keep the draw on your side, but take a bit of that 7.613/2 as well.
Genoa beat Lazio twice last season, and have won two of their last five against them at the Olimpico. In Marco Borriello, they have a striker who has found the net in his last two appearances against Lazio, and with the home team tired after Thursday night's exertions, I would give Genoa a major chance, especially given the form alongside Borriello of the brilliant Ciro Immobilie. He will be a major star, and will soon be leading the line for his parent club Juventus.
The thing to remember about Lazio is that they are hugely reliant on two players: Hernanes, who has a habit of fading when the going gets tough and his legs get tired, and Miroslav Klose, who is 34-years-old and will struggle to perform at his best twice in four days. When a price is too short, it always helps if you can find a reason for it: we can do that easily here. Lazio's League position means that they are heavily favoured, more heavily than they should be. Don't be surprised if we get a repeat of Genoa's 2-1 win last season.
Recommended Bets
Lay Lazio @ 1.584/7
Back Genoa to beat Lazio @ 7.613/2


Atalanta v Palermo
Atalanta got a standout victory at Milan last week, and that brought to an end a run which had seen them take only one point from their previous five Serie A matches. The home team are priced at 1.910/11 to follow the Milan win with another as they face a Palermo team which hasn't won in 11 Serie A matches.
Palermo will go to Bergamo under the stewardship at Gian Piero Gasperini, after Giuseppe Sannino paid a predictable price for the Rosanero's poor start. There'll be those of you who won't want to oppose a club with a new coach. The saying goes that the team will be freshly motivated by a change and that Palermo have a chance off pulling off a victory on the road at a tempting looking 5.14/1. I wouldn't be so sure. Gasperini is no Serse Cosmi, no grand motivator of players: he is a fussy tactician who's idea take time to work. His job in Sicily is a gigantic one, and he could be under pressure pretty quickly. Gasperini will almost certainly start out with his favoured 3-4-3 formation, a set up which normally means goals, particularly as Palermo have played 4-4-2 in their last couple of games and may struggle to adjust: all of that makes over 2.5 Goals a reasonable bet at odds against.
Atalanta are no great shakes, but are well organised enough and sharp enough in front of goal (thanks to German Denis and Maxi Moralez) to suggest that they will win comfortably.
Recommended Bets
Back Atalanta to beat Palermo @ 1.910/11
Back over 2.5 Goals @ 2.111/10


Parma v Fiorentina
I'm sorely tempted to go to the Sampdoria well again, and back them to beat Torino at the Marassi, but my concern is that Torino won both matches between the sides last season, and that, although Samp are a much changed side, some of that momentum will linger. So I'd rather stick with two attacking sides who will hopefully provide a spectacle at the Tardini on Sunday afternoon.
Fiorentina let us down last week when their match against Catania finished one short of over 2.5 goals, but La Viola have scored in 12 of their last 13 visits to the Tardini and there's no reason to see that stopping. The Fiorentina midfield is starting to click and with Stefan Jovetic in great form they look a threat to any defence. Parma have been solid so far, and won their previous home game 2-0. I think they'll score here too, but also are likely to concede in what should be an open game. That makes "Yes" to "both Teams to Score" a potential play @ 1.910/11, but I think that there's a better way of making a profit, and that's the over 2.5 goals market.
One thing of which to take note is how late both Parma and Fiorentina's goal have come in games. The earliest that either team have scored is in the 32nd minute, with the rest of the goals scored by both sides coming in the 43rd, 44th, 65th, 67th, 86th and 90th minutes. This indicates that, rather than simply back over 2.5 goals at the start of the match we should look to play in running, not getting to greedy, but trying to let the "overs" price drift out to just over 3.02/1 before getting involved.
At worst, it should be a rock solid trade, but I think second half goals should see us home in terms of over 2.5 goals.
Recommended Bets
Over 2.5 Goals in Parma v Fiorentina - put up 3.211/5 in running.

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