Serie A Betting: Fiorentina to march on towards the top four

Are La Viola headed for the top four?

There's a full programme of Serie A fixtures over the next two days. Dave Farrar previews three of the best...

"Fiorentina are trading at 2.3411/8 for the win, and with Genoa looking pitiful at the moment, and Fiorentina looking like one of the best teams in the country, that looks like a price worth taking."

Back Fiorentina to beat Genoa @ 2.3411/8

Lazio v Torino
A bare reading of the statistics surrounding this match would suggest that Lazio are a near certainty to pick up a fourth home win out of five this season. Despite their weekend defeat at Fiorentina, Lazio have been in great form, and on the surface look tremendous value at 1.8810/11 to pick up another win.

Lazio, though, are missing the two men who, along with Miroslav Klose, have inspired their excellent start. Hernanes and Cristian Ledesma were both sent off in Florence, and so are suspended, and that means Torino have their best chance in a decade to take three points off Lazio. Torino are trading at 5.69/2 for the win, and that might seem a little far fetched, but you can't emphasise enough how important Hernanes in particular is to making Lazio tick.

Torino made a strong start to the season but have been poor lately. They are struggling to score and haven't managed a win since they beat Atalanta 5-1 in Bergamo at the end of September. The team was booed off the pitch on Sunday after they lost against Parma and the pressure is building on Giampiero Ventura. The Torino manager, though, has always been able to organise teams defensively, and even though they conceded three against Parma, they have the fifth strongest defence in the league, and have certainly played better away from home so far.

Pressure often means that players and coaches rely on what they do best, and I think that we're going to see a safety first approach from Torino, who will make themselves very hard to beat and be happy with a 0-0 draw. They've twice achieved that scoreline away from home this season, at Siena and Palermo, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see something similar here, as Lazio, without their two creative stars, struggle to break them down - the 0-0 Correct Score is trading at 10.09/1, and that seems worth an investment.

The other market which has to be of interest is Under 2.5 Goals. That outcome is available at 1.84/5 and the way that this game is likely to be played makes that a short, but attractive, price.

Recommended Bets
Back 0-0 draw Correct Score in Lazio v Torino at 10.09/1
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5


Inter v Sampdoria
Many people think that if Juve's remarkable unbeaten run is to come to an end any time soon, then it will be in this Saturday's Derby D'Italia in Turin. Before that huge showdown, though, Inter have to take care of a Samp side coached by Juve legend Ciro Ferrara, and they shouldn't have too much trouble.

Inter are in great form, having won their last seven games in all competitions, and although much of that excellence has come away from home, I don't see how Sampdoria can win here. Inter have their issues, but Samp have been awful lately. They have lost their last four matches, and on Sunday, they were beaten at home by a pretty average Cagliari side.

The early season days when three victories had them in the top four look a long way away, and there are even rumours circulating in Genoa about Ferrara's future. If his team loses here, and then fails at home against Atalanta at the weekend, then huge pressure will be put on games against Palermo and Udinese, and he may not have long in the job.

I'm tempted by Inter on the Asian Handicap conceding a goal, but for all Samp's woes, they have managed to score in every away game so far this season, and with Inter looking shaky at the back against both Catania and Bologna, both teams to score looks inviting at 1.910/11.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score in Inter v Sampdoria @ 1.981/1


Genoa v Fiorentina
Thursday night's Serie A game is at Marassi in Genoa, with the home team trying to give their fans something to smile about. Gigi Delneri's first game in charge was the soul destroying 1-0 defeat by Milan at the weekend, and seemingly gone are the days when Genoa went toe-to-toe with the big boys and tried to outscore them, as they did in that wonderful early season game against Juventus.

Delneri's style has always been somewhat sober, and we could see that in Milan, when a talented team looked hardworking and uninspired. Fiorentina were boosted hugely by their win against Lazio, and all that they need to do now is sort out their form away from home. La Viola are yet to win away from the Artemio Franchi, but their quick passing game should be tailor made for counter attacking and grabbing wins on the road. They've been playing well away and in my opinion have simply been a little unfortunate, and are ready to underline their top four credentials with a victory here.

Fiorentina are trading at 2.3411/8 for the win, and with Genoa looking pitiful at the moment, and Fiorentina looking like one of the best teams in the country, that looks like a price worth taking. Fiorentina haven't won at Marassi since 1982, but that may well change on Thursday night.

Recommended Bet
Back Fiorentina to beat Genoa @ 2.3411/8

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