Lukaku can make impact in Rome debry
Roma can have at least four shots on target
Cristante fouls likely in a card-filled game
Lazio v Roma
Live on TNT Sports
There's no derby quite like the Rome one... Twelve cards were handed out when these two teams last met in March, and that should tell you everything you need to know about the rivalry between these sides.
To put it bluntly, the pair absolutely hate each other, and we're bound to see an exciting game with some heated exchanges.
The fact that both sides are under a lot of pressure for results only adds to the spectacle. These are two of the biggest clubs in Italian football, yet Roma sit just seventh in the league, with Lazio in tenth.
A win here would propel either side a few positions up the table, and even at this early stage, three points could be hugely influential in the race for European football.
Needless to say, this game is well worth a bet builder.
Leg 1: Lukaku Score or Assist
With six goals in eight Serie A starts, Romelu Lukaku tops the scoring charts for Roma. This tally makes the Belgian joint second top scorer in the Italian top flight along with Olivier Giroud and Victor Osimhen.
This feat is made more impressive when you consider that it doesn't account for a single penalty, something which makes up for 50% of Giroud's and 33% of Osimhen's goals.
Lukaku carries a genuine goal threat into every match. An average of 0.45 xG per game is a strong showing for just one player, and the fact that he's managed six goals alongside that highlights his clinical nature.
Romelu may not have featured for Roma last season but he tends to save his best for Lazio. In his last three games across two spells for Inter Milan, Lukaku scored two and assisted a further three.
More of the same would certainly be welcome here.
Leg 2: Roma 4+ Shots on target
Attacking play is perhaps not the first thing which comes to mind with a Mourinho side but Roma are bucking that trend. They are the third highest scorers in Serie A with 21 goals in their 11 outings thus far.
The Giallorossi take 13.3 shots per game, averaging 4.09 efforts on target. That's a 30% hit rate, a stat that should serve them well come Sunday evening.
Over the past five matches, Roma have become more clinical, reducing the amount of shots taken to 11.4 per game, but maintaining a consistent number of shots on goal to 4.0.
Not to mention, Roma have recorded at least four efforts on goal in three of the last four matches.
Lazio concede 12.7 shots per game, with opponents managing 4.27 efforts on target. They've allowed four shots on target in seven of their last 11, and given their relatively tame start to the season, I'd expect Roma to hit similar numbers here.
Leg 3: Bryan Cristante 2+ Fouls
In two Derby Della Capitales last year, Bryan Cristante averaged 1.50 fouls and was sent off for violent conduct. Roma fans will hope that he can maintain his composure this time around but fouls seem to be in Bryan's nature.
The Roma man is a menace in the midfield. He's aggressive, rash in the tackle, and the added bad blood of a Rome derby should only add fuel to the fire for this selection.
Cristante averages 2.11 fouls, rising to 3.0 over the past four league games. He's committed at least one foul in all of his away matches this season and two or more fouls in 67% of away matches.
The Italian midfielder is a mainstay in this Roma side and has started all 11 Serie A games for José Mourinho, including three selections at Center Back. There's little doubt he'll be in the lineup for this one, and that means fouls.
Leg 4: Over 5.5 cards
On the face of it over 5.5 cards seems quite high. But this is no ordinary game and there's been an average of 7.5 cards in the last four meetings between these two.
Better still, Davide Massa is the referee for this one. He handed out more cards than any other Serie A ref last season - 88 yellow and three red cards in just 14 games. And he's tracking similar numbers this season.
I'm expecting a scrappy game here considering both sides are in dire need of a result. The fouls will inevitably come flying in and the cards will quickly follow.
Of course, given the context, emotions will be running high so there's also a chance that players lose their heads and end up picking up cards without even committing a foul.
Back Dan Fitch's Serie A tips here.
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