Bad Man Betting's Milan Derby Tips: Inter to heap misery on rivals AC in 9/1 Bet Builder

Bad Man Betting
04 February 2023
3:00 min read

Martinez has scored 6 times in 6 derby matches

Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Sun 5 Feb, 19:45

Join

Twitter

Facebook

After a near miss in their opening column for Betfair, @BadManBetting is back to preview the top European fixture this weekend, and there is only one place to take this week's Bet Builder column. Read on to find out what the team have chosen to back, which will give you an enhanced price via our Traders.

AC winless in six not reflected in Inter win price
Both Inter & AC matches averaging 3.3 goals per game
Six goals in six derby games for Martinez
AC average 2.6 cards per game in Serie A
Bet Builder boosted to 9/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook

Milan derby caps Sunday's Serie A

Another weekend, another huge game in Serie A on Sunday evening. Inter vs AC Milan on BT Sport at 7:45pm, played at the iconic San Siro which, sadly, isn't going to be the home of the two clubs for much longer.

Inter are the closest thing to a title rival of Napoli, as unlikely as it may be, and AC Milan could be about to experience their worst run of league results since 2019.

It's an interesting matchup, and one that'll be officiated by the best referee in the league for cards. It's got a Bet Builder written all over it.

Inter Milan to win

Inter, players and fans alike, will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing bitter rivals AC Milan amid their painful slump.

Milan are on a run of six competitive matches without a win, and they go into Sunday's derby having conceded an embarrassing nine goals across their last couple of matches in Serie A.

They lost 4-0 in Rome against Lazio, before being thrashed 5-2 at home to Sassuolo last weekend.

Inter need a win here to keep up with league-leaders Napoli who are already 13 points clear at the top of Serie A, a lead that could be extended by the time the Milan derby comes around as Napoli are big favourites at Spezia on Sunday morning.

The two Milan clubs met just last month as Inter ran out 3-0 winners in the Supercoppa Italiana, a match which took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Inter will be even more confident on home soil as Napoli are the only Serie A side who've collected more points than them at home.

Milan manager Stefano Pioli is under huge pressure. Losing to Inter could leave them 18 points behind the leaders and a loss would be three successive league defeats for the first time since September 2019.

Expect Inter to make a fast start and take it to them. The stats say you want to get at Milan early because only Salernitana, Cremonese and Sampdoria have conceded more Serie A goals before the half-time interval.

Over 2.5 goals in Milan derby

The price for goals in this game looks very attractive.

Why? It's simple. The two Milan clubs are the best two sides for goals scored in their games in Serie A, with the same 3.3 average (66 in 20 games each).

Over 2.5 goals is the shout here. A selection that has won in 70% of Inter's league matches and a large 75% of Milan's.

The fact that AC Milan can't defend is another good reason for having an expectation for goals.

They conceded five goals from Sassuolo's seven shots on target last time out, a side who'd been struggling to find the back of the net. What happens when you throw Martinez, Dzeko and Lukaku into the mix?

The Milan derby has a great track record for goals in recent history. Eight out of the last ten meetings between Inter and AC have seen over 2.5 goals scored.

Lautaro Martinez 2 or more shots on target

Above evens for a couple of shots on goal from Lautaro Martinez appears to be a good value selection.

Martinez enjoys playing against Milan as he's experienced beating them six times and he's also scored against them six times.

He's had seven shots across the last two Milan derbies, and he's averaging 1.42 shots on target per 90 minutes which makes him Inter's most accurate player.

Over 2.5 AC Milan cards

AC Milan have the fifth worst disciplinary record in Serie A which has been a complete 180 on last season where they were one of the cleaner sides as they went on the win the Scudetto.

So far this season, they've picked up 50 yellow cards and a couple of reds which has them at an average of 2.6 cards received per game.

They lost the plot during their heavy defeat to Sassuolo last weekend and picked up seven yellow cards in that one. Frustration will only increase if they were to suffer another damaging defeat but this time at the hands of their rivals.

Davide Massa is the referee on Sunday, and no referee has shown more yellow cards than him in Serie A this season.

He's averaging 5.89 cards per game which is exactly what you want to see.