Punters face a difficult question ahead of Sunday night's big match between Inter and Napoli. Do we trust the stats or do we trust our eyes? The former tell us that Napoli have little chance, and that the price of [3.3] that's available for an away win is, if anything, a little short.
The latter give Napoli a great chance. Napoli's record away from home against Serie A's top teams is desperate, as their recent history against Inter emphasises. Napoli won here last season, but prior to that they had lost eight in a row away from home against the Nerazzurri, and have similar records against Milan and Juve.
But having watched both teams in recent weeks it's clear that Napoli are a very good side, and Inter, having pulled off that glorious win against Juve, are a pretty inconsistent one.
Inter were awful in their win against Palermo last weekend, and even though Antonio Cassano is back, they struggle to play with any kind of tempo, and certainly look better counterattacking away from home than they do when they have to force the pace at home.
Inter's hesitancy could play into Napoli's hands, and I fancy Walter Mazzarri to out think Andrea Stramaccioni and inspire Napoli to a win. Inter's back three looks vulnerable, and with Walter Samuel out, I don't fancy Andrea Ranocchia and Juan Jesus against Napoli's clever passing and movement.
If you can bear to ignore the stats, then Napoli rate tremendous value to win at Inter, and with that win last season fresh in their minds, I think that this set of players is good enough to pull it off.
Back Napoli to beat Inter @ [3.3]