Serie A Betting: Goals, goals and more goals in far from boring Italian football

Napoli forward Dries Mertens celebrates in August 2019
Dries Mertens expects to be celebrating more Napoli goals against Sampdoria this weekend

Dave Farrar predicts Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Sampdoria, Fiorentina v Juventus and Genoa v Atalanta this weekend...

“Both of Napoli’s games so far have featured seven goals, and when you factor in the frailty of a Sampdoria side that has conceded seven in their opening two, and yet which will continue to play in Eusebio Di Francesco’s open style, I can only see more goals here.”

Ancelotti guarantees goals

Napoli v Sampdoria
Saturday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Napoli's approach to their opening two games of the campaign indicates that there'll be goals at the San Paolo as well this weekend, as Carlo Ancelotti's team look to recover instantly from that heartbreak against Juventus.

There are injury issues in forward areas for Napoli, with Arek Milik and Lorenzo Insigne doubtful, but Ancelotti still has an abundance of attacking talent on which to rely, with Fernando Llorente a sensible deadline day signing.

Both of Napoli's games so far have featured seven goals, and when you factor in the frailty of a Sampdoria side that has conceded seven in their opening two, and yet which will continue to play in Eusebio Di Francesco's open style, I can only see more goals here, and ultimately a powerful display by the home side.

Fireworks in Florence

Fiorentina v Juventus
Saturday, 14:00

The Serie A weekend starts at the unusual time of 2pm UK on Saturday afternoon, as Juventus are given as long as the schedule allows to prepare for next week's Champions League trip to Atlético Madrid.

On the form that we've seen so far this season, Juve might be struggling to extricate themselves from a Group that also contains Bayer Leverkusen and Lokomotiv Moscow, but there's time for the Champions to improve, and that may well start in Florence.

Juve have won both of their opening Serie A games, but were pushed to the limit by Napoli last time, and were phenomenally lucky to emerge with a victory. On Matchday One, they defeated Parma away from home, but the fact that they're going to be without the match winner that day, Giorgio Chiellini, for much of this season is a huge blow to Maurizio Sarri.

He may look like he's ageing and that his powers are waning, but Chiellini remains one of the best three defenders in Serie A, and his absence will cost Juve. Whether it costs them enough to surrender the title is another matter, but teams will feel that they can hurt a backline with Leonardo Bonucci and Matthijs De Ligt at its heart, at least as they get to know each other.

La Viola also produced a seven-goal thriller against Napoli, on Matchday One, and followed that up with another defeat in Genoa, which has fans grumbling yet more loudly about the reappointment of Vincenzo Montella.

All of that means that there'll be quite an atmosphere at the Franchi, especially given the hatred that exists between these clubs, and given the way that both have approached games this season, I think that there'll be goals as well. Juve are of course the likelier winners, but their vulnerability remains, and I think that it may lead us to another thriller.

Gasp brings goals to Genoa

Genoa v Atalanta
Sunday, 11:30
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

The final game to focus on in a weekend which looks to be full of goals is Atalanta's trip to Genoa. Atalanta make their Champions League bow on Wednesday against Dinamo Zagreb and of course there's a danger that their focus could be on that red letter occasion, but the manner of their performances so far this season means that there ought to be goals at Marassi on Sunday, as well as at the Artemio Franchi and San Paolo on Saturday.

Genoa have started well, drawing 3-3 at Roma and then beating Fiorentina here last week, while Atalanta have had a curious, slightly hungover beginning to their campaign. They came from two goals down on the opening day to beat SPAL, before succumbing 3-2 at home against Torino on the last Matchday.

Atalanta's style hasn't changed under Gian Piero Gasperini, and that's always going to mean the potential for goals, and with Genoa's form so far this season suggesting that they too are looking to play an attractive brand of football, I think that 2.767/4 is very reasonable for there to be at least four goals in this one.

2019-20 P/L

Staked: 6 Points
Return: 8.02 points
P/L: + 2.02 points

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