Serie A Betting: Nerazzurri will rule Milan Derby while Roma should thrill again

Inter forward Romelu Lukaku
Romelu Lukaku and Inter can expect to be smiling after the Milan Derby

Dave Farrar predicts Inter will get the bragging rights in the Derby della Madonnina, Atalanta bite back and more Stadio Dall'Ara Overs...

“Inter are significantly better than Milan, and if this wasn’t a derby game (thus hinting at some form of parity), there’s no way that we’d be able to back Inter at 2.3611/8 to win it.”

Derby delight for Inter

Milan v Inter
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Placing faith in Inter Milan has been a dangerous game in this column in recent seasons (well, almost every season), but they look a rock solid bet to beat Milan in the big game this Saturday night.

Inter may have shown all of their old frailties by slipping up in the Champions League against Slavia Prague in midweek, but they have now won three out of three in Serie A, and are looking like a realistic challenger to Juventus for the Scudetto.

Cynical long time observers will say that Inter will find a way not to win the title, and I have sympathy with that view, but they do look markedly superior to a Milan team who are still finding their feet under Marco Giampaolo. They lost on the opening day against Udinese, and have scraped past Brescia and Verona in subsequent weeks, looking unconvincing.

There is, of course, a chance that Milan will raise their game for this, but even that won't be good enough. I still believe that Giampaolo will find a way to get the Rossoneri into the top four as I suggested in pre-season, but this game is a case of levels. Inter are significantly better than Milan, and if this wasn't a derby game (thus hinting at some form of parity), there's no way that we'd be able to back Inter at 2.3611/8 to win it.

Bologna bulldog spirit

Bologna v Roma
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Bologna were involved in a remarkable game against Brescia last weekend, winning it by a 4-3 scoreline, and continually buoyed by the fighting spirit shown by their Coach Sinisa Mihajlovic.

If they're in the mood for another shoot-out this weekend, then they'll find a willing partner in Paulo Fonseca's Roma, who have shown a willingness to go head to head with everyone who has crossed their path this season.

In three Serie A games so far, Roma have been involved in two six-goal thrillers, and another game, the Derby against Lazio, that could have ended with a similar tally. Fonseca had made his intentions clear, and I think that we'll see a Roma side intent on all-out attack again this weekend.

We can back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5 here, and even though I'm still red faced by how my suggested goals bets went last weekend, I'm happy to put that down as an anomaly and start again here. All logic dictates that this game will have goals, and 2.68/5 looks a fair price for there to be at least four of them.

Atalanta must react

Atalanta v Fiorentina
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

Fiorentina were good enough to get a shock point against Juventus last weekend, but it's still been a poor start to the season for Vincenzo Montella, and even though Atalanta were nightmarishly bad in the Champions League in midweek, I think that they'll bounce back from that display with victory here.

In a way, La Viola are the worst possible team for Atalanta to be playing, as they habitually set out to defend, but those are the kind of sides against whom Atalanta can thrive. It's the likes of Dinamo Zagreb, who began on the front foot in Croatia on Wednesday, who can cause serious issues.

The cliched view in the last couple of seasons is that Gian Piero Gasperini's team are either wonderful or awful, but there's actually some sense in that view, and they were so bad on Wednesday - as bad as I can remember - that I don't believe that they'll allow that to happen again.

Dinamo kept the Atalanta full-backs quiet, but I don't think that Fiorentina are good enough or energetic enough to achieve that, and it's hard to believe that Josip Ilicic or Papu Gomez will again be as quiet as they were in Croatia.

Atalanta's midweek result means that we can back them at 2.0621/20 for the win, and that looks a fair price to me.

For more tips on Serie A, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor, with Betfair columnists Kevin Hatchard, Mark O'Haire and Jake Osgathorpe joining host Caroline Barker to preview all the weekend action

2019-20 P/L

Staked: 9 Points
Return: 8.02 points
P/L: - 0.98 points

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