Serie A Betting: In-form Atalanta can pull off Juve upset

Torino celebrate
Torino should be celebrating another victory this weekend

Dave Farrar predicts Torino and Atalanta will pick up precious victories away to Empoli and Juventus, while the Stadio San Paolo won't provide many fireworks...

"The market is clearly seduced by the fact that Empoli are at home, “have everything to play for”, and simply must win this ahead of a final day trip to Inter."

Empoli are over-rated

Empoli v Torino
Sunday, 14:00

Empoli have echoed Bologna in finding form from out of nowhere and giving themselves a chance of survival. How they must have wished that Atalanta could have prevailed in Wednesday's Cup Final.

That outcome would have all but guaranteed Torino a place in next season's Europa League, but Lazio's win means that the pressure is on Toro to finish with two victories, and hope for mistakes from Milan and Roma.

Much though I'd like Empoli to stay up, I fear for them, and am surprised to see them trading as narrow favourites to win here. Torino are a far better side than they're given credit for, and they've lost only once since January 19.

The market is clearly seduced by the fact that Empoli are at home, "have everything to play for", and simply must win this ahead of a final day trip to Inter. For all that they've beaten Fiorentina and Sampdoria in their last two games, though, I think that their revival will come to an end here.

Torino are a much better side than Empoli, are mega motivated themselves, and have proved this calendar year that they can get difficult jobs done. Andrea Belotti is in form too, which makes them a much bigger threat, and I think that they're overpriced to win in Tuscany.

Atalanta can do it again

Juventus v Atalanta
Sunday, 19:30
Live on Premier 1

The Scudetto will be handed over on Sunday night in Turin, but this will a long way from a ceremonial game, as Atalanta try desperately to stay in control of fourth position in Serie A and a Champions League place for next season.

With Gian Piero Gasperini seemingly set to join Roma for the next campaign, this has the feel of a last chance for the League's most over-achieving team. Should the Coach leave, you can't help but feel that the squad will fracture, the playing style will change, and circumstance will mean that the team from Bergamo will never come as close to playing on the major European stage. This, frankly, is it.

Atalanta lost the Cup Final at the Stadio Olimpico in midweek, ground down by Lazio, and beaten late on. Having failed in that tilt at glory, Gasperini's team will be even more desperate to get the job done here, fully aware that their magnificent season deserves more than a Europa League place.

They're priced as outsiders to win against the Champions, which is understandable in one way, but in another makes no sense at all. They have been the form team in Serie A in 2019, haven't been beaten since February 23, and I couldn't help but feel that they were holding something back on Wednesday at the Stadio Olimpico, knowing how crucial Sunday night would be.

Atalanta tore Juve apart in the Cup quarter-final in January, and with Max Allegri's team winning only one of their last seven in all competitions, and with Cristiano Ronaldo out of contention for Capocannoniere, Juve have nothing to play for, other than their home supporters.

It will be a farewell for several figures in Turin, including Allegri, as it was announced on Friday that the Coach will not be on the bench next season. Andrea Barzagli is going to retire this summer and that will be another emotional goodbye, while Paulo Dybala is reconsidering his status.

In truth, Juve have been a shadow in Serie A ever since they won the title, and the only question here is whether or not Atalanta's small squad has the energy to go again. Given the make or break nature of the game, I think that they do, and they're overpriced at 3.39/4 to win here.

Inter keep it tight

Napoli v Inter
Sunday, 19:30

Napoli and Inter should have been the glamour fixture of the weekend, but it's rather been eclipsed by events in Turin, and I don't think that these two will serve up much of a spectacle at the San Paolo.

The two drew 0-0 here last season, and that result has to be considered again at a double figure price, although I'll play the Under 2.5 Goals at a generous 2.245/4.

Napoli have looked demotivated in recent weeks, while Inter are hell bent on hanging onto third place in the table and will be desperate not to lose here. That means that we'll see a defensive Inter, and they've proved on several occasions this season that they're adept at shutting up shop.

The reverse fixture finished 1-0 in Inter's favour, thanks to a last minute Lautaro Martinez goal, and five of their last six games have gone Under 2.5 Goals, leading us towards the impression that this match will go down in similar fashion.

Napoli have been held here this season by Chievo and Torino, and the latter result is interesting in relation to tonight. Inter do what Torino do away from home, but simply do it better. I wouldn't be surprised to see Luciano Spalletti's team take advantage of Napoli's lack of energy and motivation and sneak a win here, and do so in a low scoring game.

2018-19 P/L

Staked: 108 points
Returned: 119.85 points
P/L: + 11.85 points

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