Dave Farrar predicts goals galore in fascinating clashes at Fiorentina and Sampdoria but Cagliari's awful away record will continue at the Stadio Dall'Ara...
“Fiorentina’s last four games have all gone Over 3.5 Goals (with one Over 4.5 and the other two Over 5.5), and with Lazio starting to rediscover their own goalscoring form, I think that makes goals an absolute must bet here.”
More Fiorentina fireworks
Fiorentina v Lazio
Live on Freesports and Betfair Live Video
Lazio shocked plenty of people, me included, with their destruction of Roma at the Olimpico last week, and I think that we can safely say that they are back to somewhere near their best.
Now they head to Florence to take on their former coach Stefano Pioli and a Fiorentina team who can't stop entertaining, but are struggling to win as many games as they should.
Lazio have won six of their last eight games at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, which points towards them here at around 2.526/4, but once again, I think that there's a better bet, which is on goals in the game.
Fiorentina's last four games have all gone Over 3.5 Goals (with one Over 4.5 and the other two Over 5.5), and with Lazio starting to rediscover their own goalscoring form, I think that makes goals an absolute must bet here.
Fiorentina have conceded in their last ten Serie A meetings with Lazio, and are more than likely to score themselves, with Luis Muriel now having scored in three consecutive games.
We know all about Lazio's latent attacking talent, spearheaded by Ciro Immobile (pictured below), and this just feels like a game that will feature goals, and one in which that outcome is usefully priced.
Bologna home and dry
Bologna v Cagliari
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video
Bologna are starting to look desperate, and after a good start under Sinisa Mihajlovic, last week's defeat in Udine was a serious blow. They have lost 14 of their first 26 Serie A games, and that has only happened once before, in 1990/91. A season in which they were relegated.
Cagliari come after the confidence boost of a Friday night win against Inter last week. You might be surprised to see Bologna trading as favourites, but Cagliari are so poor away from Sardinia that it's no great surprise to see most people favouring Bologna.
I tend to agree. Cagliari are the opposite of away specialists Parma, in that they win a massive majority of their points at home. They have won 15 more points at home than on their travels this season, which is the biggest disparity in Serie A, and I think that we should forgive Bologna a poor performance last time and side with them here.
Bologna have won four of their last six here against Cagliari, and after three straight defeats the gap to safety is suddenly four points. There'll be a sizeable crowd at the Dall'Ara, who know just how crucial home games like this are going to be, and I think that a flaky Cagliari will be perfect opposition.
Sampdoria v Atalanta
Live on Betfair Live Video
I'm really surprised to see Sampdoria as big as 3.814/5 to beat Atalanta at Marassi this weekend, given a stabilisation of their form and the fact that their opponents haven't been too reliable in this campaign.
Samp have won three in a row against Atalanta, and eight of their last ten against them in Serie A, so it's odd to see them being treated as such big outsiders, especially seeing as they've won five of their last six Serie A games at home.
Atalanta, though, bared their teeth again against Fiorentina last weekend and look back to somewhere near their best, so I'll reluctantly ignore the stats and think about the better bet that's on offer here, which is to support Over 3.5 Goals at around the 3.02/1 mark.
Atalanta are the top scorers in Serie A, and are likely to find the net here, while Samp have Serie A's joint top scorer in Fabio Quagliarella (pictured below) and it's hard to see this one being anything other than high scoring.
Atalanta bring out teams' attacking side and I think that this game looks to have an end to end shape about it, like their match against Fiorentina last week that did the trick for us. Hence, I'll stick to the same plan.
Staked: 78 points
Returned: 82.54 points
P/L: + 4.54 points
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Lazio @ 3.185/40
Back Bologna to beat Cagliari @ 2.0621/20
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Sampdoria v Atalanta @ 3.02/1