Dave Farrar predicts the big fixture won't be a repeat of last season's thriller, Palermo can upset Inter and Parma-Chievo will be in Serie B next year...
“With Milan unlikely to score and Juve likely to do just enough to win, it's surprising to see Under 2.5 Goals as the outsider in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.”
Juventus v Milan
Live on BT Sport 1
One of the themes of the last few Serie A seasons has been that big games are no longer big games, and there's a case in point in Turin this Saturday night as Juventus take on Milan. Juve are 1.42/5 to beat the Rossoneri and that just about sums it up. Max Allegri's current side is a good deal better than his old one, and Juve are very likely winners.
A price of 1.42/5 makes little appeal though, and so we have to cast around elsewhere for a bet. Milan are injury ravaged, and with new man Mattia Destro suspended and Stephan El Shaarawy out again, they're going to struggle to score goals against a fearsome Juve backline.
The hosts themselves haven't been entirely convincing going forward either. They drew a dreadful blank against Udinese last weekend, and that after Parma had held out against them until the 89th minute in the Cup the previous midweek. Stephan Lichtsteiner is also suspended.
With Milan unlikely to score (Jeremy Menez is their only hope) and Juve likely to do just enough to win, it's surprising to see Under 2.5 Goals as the outsider in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. This fixture turned up a 3-2 thriller last season but a similar scoreline here is improbable. Unders is the pick at a more than reasonable 2.0421/20.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Juventus v Milan @ 2.0421/20
Inter v Palermo
Live on BT Sport Extra
Given that Palermo have lost only twice in Serie A since the start of October, and given that Inter are in familiar crisis mode, it seems ridiculous to see the Sicilians trading at 5.04/1 to win at San Siro on Sunday night.
Giuseppe Iachini has done a great job with the Rosanero, Roberto Mancini less so since his return to Inter, and there's no sensible reason to see the Nerazzurri as short as 1.834/5 to emerge victorious.
Inter are, of course, capable of being very very good, and their performance at the San Paolo on Wednesday in the Cup could be regarded as encouraging, but they're no odds-on shots here, and Palermo will fancy that they can produce a big performance.
They'll back it up with firepower too: they've scored in each of their last six Serie A games away from home and have lost only one of their last 13 on the road.
I wouldn't put you off a relatively conservative lay of Inter at 1.834/5, but the price of 5.04/1 about a first ever Palermo win at Inter in Serie A is too good to miss. Don't forget, they already beat Milan here this year.
Recommended Bet: Back Palermo to beat Inter @ 5.04/1
Parma v Chievo
The next goal that Chievo score will be their 500th in Serie A, and that statistic shows just how far this little team has come in a relatively short space of time. They may have to wait a week longer before they reach that landmark, though, as I see a dour game ahead in Parma.
I suspect that both of these teams will be playing in Serie B next season, and with Parma's off field issues reaching crisis point and Chievo almost certain to play for a 0-0 draw at the Tardini, it's hard to see anything but a low scoring game.
You should be able to back the 0-0 draw at 9.08/1, and that was the scoreline when these two met here last season, but I'd rather give myself the insurance of a goal, and so will be backing under 1.5 Goals at 2.915/8. I suggest that you do likewise.
Recommended Bet: Back Under 1.5 Goals in Parma v Chievo @ 2.915/8
From 63 points staked on Serie A this season, Dave is currently showing a profit of 0.91 points.