Serie A betting: Back Inter to rule Milan on Sunday night

Stevan Jovetic has scored all Inter’s goals this season and could star again in the Milan derby
Stevan Jovetic has scored all Inter’s goals this season and could star again in the Milan derby

Dave Farrar predicts the city painted blue and black, goals galore in Empoli v Napoli and Roma's early bird special...

“They’ve looked organised, disciplined, and all of the things that you don’t normally associate with Inter, and I think that they’re worth backing to beat their city rivals at 2.3211/8.”

Inter v Milan
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

The golden rule in Milan derbies over the years has been to lay the team in form, sit back and pray. It's not the most exact science, and not an approach that I'll be adopting here. It does, however, serve as a word of warning: betting on this fixture can be a nightmare.

I think we have an angle this season, though. Inter have started well, albeit only with wins over Atalanta and Carpi, and they HAVE needed last minute Stevan Jovetic goals in both matches.

They've looked organised, disciplined, and all of the things that you don't normally associate with Inter, and I think that they're worth backing to beat their city rivals at 2.3211/8. I was expecting Inter to be a little shorter, and I'm happy to take that price.

Last term's joint top scorer Mauro Icardi could also be back from a muscular injury, with Ivan Perisic, Felipe Melo and Alex Telles potentially thrown straight in at the deep end for their debuts.

I went into this season thinking that Sinisa Mihajlovic would improve Milan, and do so quickly, but we just haven't seen evidence of that yet. In two games so far, they've managed just four shots on target, fewer than any other side in Serie A.

If that felt like it was part of some spectacular Sinisa defensive game plan, then it would be reassuring, but the fact is that the Rossoneri have been poor at the back as well. Andrea Bertolacci is out injured, but considering his form so far, that's a bonus for Milan. Will Mario Balotelli be a wild card for the second half?

The fact remains Milan are a long way from where their Coach wants them to be, and they have to be opposed here.

Recommended Bet: Back Inter to beat Milan @ 2.3611/8

Empoli v Napoli
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Maurizio Sarri takes his new side to face his old one, and is already under pressure in Naples.

Napoli have just one point from a possible six, which represents their worst start in 14 years. I think that Sarri will get it right: he admits that adapting to his training techniques is "like switching from an iPhone to a Galaxy" and it's no great surprise that his players are yet to respond. I believe that they will, and that Napoli could yet emerge as contenders to win Serie A.

There's another theme that's continuing with Napoli games, though, and it gave us a profitable last Matchday. Both of their games so far this season have had Over 2.5 goals, backing up last season's trend, and the same can be said for Empoli.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.910/11 for this one, with Over 3.5 at 3.211/5, and both of those prices are too good to ignore. The last three meetings between these sides provided a whopping 14 goals.

There is a curious statistic, as Napoli haven't beaten Empoli home or away since a Serie B encounter in 1999, managing only three draws and four defeats. In fact, the Partenopei have never won at the Stadio Castellani in seven attempts between Serie A and B.

I wouldn't put you off backing Empoli to win at what looks a hefty 5.04/1, but I'll stick with the "overs" for this one.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Empoli v Napoli @ 1.910/11
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Empoli v Napoli @ 3.211/5

Frosinone v Roma
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Frosinone were ahead at half time in their first match of the season against Torino, but since then they've suffered, conceding four goals in a game and a half. After a brilliant performance against Juventus which has made many believe that they'll be this season's Scudetto winners, Roma should win at a canter.

Roma are 1.434/9 to win, and I contemplated putting that up, but just don't like tipping at those prices. So on the basis that Roma will overwhelm Serie A's new boys, and that they made a habit of going ahead early against lowly opposition early last season, I think that they'll be good enough to justify a bet at 1.9620/21 here.
It could be an exciting season for Roma, a long one for Frosinone, and all done very early this Saturday afternoon.

Miralem Pjanic's calf injury on international duty is a huge blow, but the rapport between Edin Dzeko and Mohamed Salah keeps on improving. We could even see Francesco Totti make his first appearance of the season and he's one off 300 goals in a Giallorossi jersey.

Recommended Bet: Roma to be leading at Half Time @ 1.9620/21

2015-16 P/L

Staked: 6pts
Returned: 6.98pts
P/L: +0.98pts

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