Weekend Football Tips: First goal vital for St Johnstone and Dortmund

Michael Lintorn
17 May 2014

Pep Guardiola has been criticised since the Real Madrid defeats

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

This is a special day with three televised cup finals on back to back; Michael Lintorn has an in-play strategy for each...

"The first team to net won 11 of the last 13 Bayern v Dortmund encounters, including each of the last four, with the two exceptions being draws."

Saturday 15:00, St Johnstone v Dundee United, Sky Sports 1 and BBC1 Scotland

When you hear Scottish Cup Final, you automatically think of the Old Firm juggernauts, who between them claimed the trophy 16 times in the last 22 seasons. However, this year it is Tayside's stars being given a chance to shine, with Dundee United looking to lift the trophy for the third time, and the second in five years, and recently established top-half regulars St Johnstone contesting their first final. This showpiece has been won to nil in four of the last five years, as well as on each of the last three occasions that Dundee United reached the final. That same pattern played out in all four Scottish Premiership meetings between these sides this term - St Johnstone earning 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 wins in response to a 4-0 triumph by Dundee United in August. Back whoever scores first to prevail to nil.

Saturday 17:00, Arsenal v Hull, ITV and BT Sport 1

The FA Cup Final has been a rather sedate affair lately, often decided by just one goal, but numerous stats hint that you should back whichever team concedes first to score the second goal at Wembley. For starters, that was a feature of both semi-finals, with Arsenal and Hull both needing to come from behind to see off lower-league opponents Wigan and Sheffield United. The trend of the deadlock-breaking strike being equalised was also prevalent in the Gunners' quarter-final with Everton, in which the Londoners led 1-0, were levelled then recovered to win 4-1, and Hull's fifth-round trip to Brighton. As if that isn't enough evidence, the first goal has been cancelled out in all three of Arsene Wenger's men's previous visits to the new Wembley, and four of their last seven scraps with Hull.

Saturday 19:00, Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, BT Sport 2

It is always a spectacle when the top two clubs in Germany collide, especially right now with Bayern Munich in the weird position of being accused of failure despite topping the Bundesliga by 19 points due to the 0-5 Champions League humiliation against Real Madrid. Borussia Dortmund, who finished five points better off than in 2012/13 and won 3-0 at the Allianz Arena in April, have an opportunity to send Bayern into the summer overloaded with doubts in Robert Lewandowski's final game before switching sides. But while the match is enticingly setup, don't expect many twists once it gets going. The first team to net won 11 of the last 13 encounters, including each of the last four, with the two exceptions being draws. It is therefore wise to bet on the assumption that the early bird will indeed be chowing down a worm.

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.