Struggling Paderborn desperately need a result at home to Hoffenheim on Saturday afternoon, but Tobias Gourlay can only find compelling reasons to back the away side...
"On home turf, Paderborn entered lockdown with a dismal W2-D1-L10 record"
Paderborn v Hoffenheim
Saturday May 23, 14:30
Watch it on BT Sport Extra
Visitors well set for victory
Paderborn are winless in eight Bundesliga matches since January and face a fight to avoid relegation in their first season back at Germany's top table. In their first match after the resumption, they were a little fortunate to hold fellow relegation contenders Fortuna Dusseldorf to a goalless draw - the home side hit Paderborn's woodwork three times.
On home turf, Paderborn entered lockdown with a dismal W2-D1-L10 record. The two wins came against fellow bottom-half outfits Eintracht Frankfurt and the aforementioned Fortuna Dusseldorf. Against teams currently 11th or higher in the table, they have lost 8/8.
Hoffenheim won the reverse fixture 3-0 in November. Assuming Paderborn haven't been reborn in the enforced break, we'll take the [2.20] about ninth-placed Hoff to also leave the Benteler Arena with all three points. Although they are now winless in six matches themselves, the visitors are W5-D4-L3 on the road this term. Against teams now below them in the table, that record firms to W4-D0-L1, with the sole failure coming in the season opener way back in August.
Hosts can hassle Hoff
The guests might not have everything their own way, however. Despite that abysmal record, Steffen Baumgart's hosts have only been shut out by one of their previous 13 visitors. Backing Both Teams To Score has been the right thing to do in 11/13 of those games, which goes some way to explaining the short price on BTTS for this one.
Although Alfred Schreuder's visitors actually boast the Bundesliga's tightest away defence (12 goals conceded all season) they have conceded at least once in 9/12 away games so far and you fancy they will have to outscore their opponents to win, rather than shut them down and sneak a 1-0. With robust trends pointing to both the away win and BTTS, Hoffenheim/Yes in the Match Odds and Both Teams To Score market is jumping out at us.
Paderborn tend to fail fast
In that reverse fixture, Hoffenheim's three goals all arrived within 26 minutes of kick-off. At the Benteler Arena this season, Paderborn have conceded a remarkable 19 first-half goals. They have been losing at the interval in 10/11 of their home defeats.
If you fancy Hoff to prevail in this one, you might also be tempted by the [3.45] you can get on Hoffenheim/Hoffenheim in the Half Time/Full Time market. Just be aware that Hoff have scored before the break in only 2/12 away games this season.
Young gun could fire
Going into lockdown, Christoph Baumgartner was starting to make a splash. The 20-year-old attacking midfielder has scored in three of Hoffenheim's last five away games. With doubts around the participation this weekend of some of his forward colleagues - including Andrej Kramaric - the young Austrian could be more important than usual to his team. You can back him to find a way through Paderborn's weak defence at 9/4 on the Sportsbook.
Back Hoffenheim @ [2.20]
Back Hoffenheim/Yes @ [3.60]