Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every match of GW32

Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski
Lewandowski can help Bayern clinch the title on Tuesday
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Using expected goals (xG) data as his guide, Jake Osgathorpe looks for the likely winners and scorelines as the Bundesliga continues it's run down the home stretch...

"Bayern Munich are a win away from securing yet another title, and rightly so. They have been so superior all season long according to xG, with their process simply ridiculous (2.8 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game). Bayern should get their title clinching win here (77%)."

Gladbach to earn crucial win

Gladbach vs Wolfsburg
Tuesday, 17:30
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Gladbach put up a decent fight against Bayern Munich at the weekend, but ultimately lost, meaning they are now out of the top four, making this a huge game. Wolfsburg blew a 2-0 lead against Freiburg, but results went for them, meaning they are three points clear in sixth. Both of these teams have created a host of chances since the restart, and this should be no different. The model thinks the hosts will get an important win (46%), with goals very likely (65% O2.5, 65% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.5]

Marco Rose Gladbach 1280.jpg

Freiburg to be held

Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin
Tuesday, 19:30
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Freiburg have picked up four points from two tough games of late, meaning they remain in the hunt for a top six/seven spot that would see them qualify for Europe. Hertha Berlin were thumped by Frankfurt after Dedrick Boyata was sent off in the first half, with Bruno Labbadia's side folding emphatically in the second half. Both of these teams are very vulnerable at the back, so we should see goals here, and the model has this priced up as close as the markets. Goals are value though (61% O2.5, 63% BTTS) - 2-2.

Back the 2-2 @ [14.5]

Union to ensure suvrival

Union Berlin vs Paderborn
Tuesday, 19:30
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Union Berlin won last weekend against FC Koln, a win that pulled them to within a win of safety, which would be much deserved according to xG (8th xG table). Paderborn will be relegated here if they fail to win, but their fate is already likely sealed, and rightly so according to xG (bottom of xG table). Union should get the win to make them mathematically safe (51%), though Paderborn will go down swinging (56% O2.5, 57% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.4]

Bayern to clinch title

Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 19:30
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A big game for both. Werder pulled themselves level on points with Fortuna after a 5-1 win over Paderborn, a win that also reduced the goal difference gap to a single goal. Bayern Munich are a win away from securing yet another title, and rightly so. They have been so superior all season long according to xG, with their process simply ridiculous (2.8 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game). Bayern should get their title clinching win here (77%), though Werder will have a go, and get on the scoresheet in a high-scoring game (71% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ [11.0]

Schalke mini-revival to be ended

Frankfurt vs Schalke
Wednesday, 17:30
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Frankfurt bounced back impressively from a 2-0 defeat to Mainz, romping to a 4-1 success over Hertha Berlin thanks to another strong attacking display. Schalke appear to have stopped the rot, with a draw against Bayer Leverkusen the second successive game in which they have avoided defeat. Their performance was much better, but they continue to have issues creating chances, and haven't generated over 1.0 non-pen xGF in any game since the restart. Frankfurt are fancied to get the win (57%), with goals likely whenever the Eagles play (58% O2.5, 56% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.0]

Hoffenheim to reignite top six chances

Augsburg vs Hoffenheim
Wednesday, 19:30
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Augsburg picked up an invaluable win at Mainz last weekend, meaning they are just one more win from being mathematically safe. Hoffenheim were beaten by RB Leipzig last Friday, though their performance was actually pretty good, winning the xG battle. They are an entertaining team to follow, with chances at both ends the norm when TSG take to the field (1.61 xGF, 1.86 xGA per game). Goals are expected (72% O2.5, 72% BTTS), with Hoffenheim fancied to edge to a win (41%) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.5]

Narrow but crucial Bayer win


Wednesday, 19:30
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Bayer were surprisingly held by Schalke last weekned, and that was the fourth successive game in which they lost the xG battle, suggesting that performances are not to the same standard as prior to and just after the break. FC Koln are yet to win since the restart, as their form has deteriorated post-break, but on the whole their performances remain to a mid-table level. They pose a threat to Bayer in attack, but are extremely vulnerable defensively (1.57 xGF, 1.54 xGA per game). Bayer are taken to edge to a win (52%) in a goal-laden game (69% O2.5, 67% BTTS) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]

Comfortable Dortmund win

Dortmund vs Mainz
Wednesday, 19:30
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Dortmund once again edge to a win last weekend, needing a very late Erling Haaland winner to get past Fortuna. It was once again though, an excellent defensive display, with BVB allowing an average of 0.5 xGA per game since the restart. Mainz were beaten at home by Augsburg last weekend, meaning they remain just three points above Fortuna and now Werder. Defensively they have been a shambles this season (1.87 xGA per game), and BVB should expose them again here in a comfortable and high-scoring (64% O2.5) home win (66%) - 3-0.

Back the 3-0 @ [10.5]

RBL to pile pressure on Rosler and Fortuna

RB Leipzig vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Wednesday, 19:30
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RB Leipzig continued their streak of winning away and drawing at home since the restart, winning 2-0 at Hoffenheim. Their performances at home have, on the whole, been better than the results suggest since the return, and over the season they have averaged 2.3 xGF and 1.4 xGA per game at the Red Bull Arena. Fortuna were left heartbroken last weekend as they conceded a very late winner to Dortmund. They are now above Werder on goal difference only, so every game is crucial for them. Unfortunately, away from home this season they have been the worst team in the league, collecting just 11 points on their travels and posting a poor 1.0 xGF and 2.2 xGA per game when on the road. RBL should get a home win here (82%), in a game with plenty of goals (74% O2.5, 74% BTTS) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.5]

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Just in time for the return of Bundesliga action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L

Staked: 291pts
Returned: 280.27pts
P+L: -11.27pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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