The Champions League-chasing Foals should canter to victory against travel-sick Union Berlin, says Tobias Gourlay
"The Iron Ones have lost 7/7 trips to sides now in the top half"
Borussia Monchengladbach v Union Berlin
Sunday May 31, 14:30
Watch it on BT Sport 1 & Betfair Live Video
Revenge on the cards
In November, Monchengladbach were top of the table when they arrived in the capital for the reverse fixture. The Foals lost 2-0 to newly promoted Union and weren't long for the summit. Marco Rose's men are now fourth, having most recently been to Werder Bremen for a goalless draw on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, the home side are strong favourites to avenge November's loss when Union come to Borussia-Park on Sunday afternoon. They have the Bundesliga's third-best home record (W9-D2-L3) and they're entertaining the team with its second-worst away record (W2-D3-L9).
Hosting teams now in the bottom half of the table, the Foals have a perfect record so far this term. Meanwhile, the Iron Ones have lost all seven trips to sides now in the top half. The evidence could hardly be more conclusive: with the hosts still chasing Champions League qualification and the visitors drifting, home win it is.
In five out of seven of Monchengladbach's home wins against bottom-half sides, the margin of victory was at least a couple of goals. In four out of seven of Union's defeats to top-half outfits - including all of the most recent three - the margin was two goals or more.
If a home win price of [1.60] is too short to get excited about, backing the hosts on the Asian Handicap is a way forward. Mgladbach -1.0 & -1.5 at [2.20] or more is our pick. The only thing putting us off going a bit higher is the hosts' tendency to concede at Borussia-Park this season.
Goals look guaranteed
Since an opening-day goalless draw with Schalke, the Foals have managed just one clean sheet in 13 attempts at Borussia-Park, conceding in six out of seven against bottom-half teams. At the other end, Rose's men have scored themselves in 13 straight, so Both Teams To Score has been the right bet in 12/13 and has some appeal even at [1.80]. Union have found the back of the net in 10/14 away games, including 5/9 losses (4/7 at top-half teams).
Factoring in the possibility of a big home win, Over 2.5 Goals is around [1.70]. It's landed in 11/14 at Borussia-Park this season and 9/14 of the Iron Ones' road assignments (5/7 versus top-half sides). Over 3.5 Goals, which has been delivered in each of their last four away defeats - including the most recent 4-0 thrashing at city rivals Hertha - is around [2.70]. Half of Borussia's home matches have gone that way this term.
Dutches & doubles
At the time of writing, the best way to make the most of both Union's dismal record visiting similar teams and Borussia's surprisingly shaky defence would be to back Mgladbach & BTTS on the Sportsbook at 2/1. So long as Union score and the hosts win, you'll have an odds-against payout.
For higher risks and higher rewards, there are options in the Correct Score market. If you're taking the hosts to win and concede, the most likely outcomes are 2-1 ([9.0]) and 3-1 ([12.5]). One of those scorelines has landed in five out of nine's of Borussia's home wins and the same amount in Union's away defeats. To dutch those two Correct Scores and give yourself the same payout if one of them comes in, put around 58% of your stake on 2-1 and 42% on 3-1. A payout on either would then be made at odds of slightly better than [5.0].
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.70]
Back Mgladbach & BTTS @ 2/1