Ligue 1 Betting: PSG at nearly evens? Yes please
After two winners from two selections last weekend, James Eastham picks out his best bets from latest round of matches in France's top flight, including a rare chance to back PSG at nearly evens...
"The opportunity to back PSG at close to evens to win a Ligue 1 game hardly ever comes up, meaning it's too good to pass over this weekend."
Visitors to extend run of good form
Angers vs Dijon (15th vs 16th)
Sat, 19:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video
In this battle of relegation contenders the momentum lies with the visitors. Dijon have looked stronger and stronger since appointing Antoine Kombouare manager last month and carry good confidence levels into this game.
Dijon's four results since Kombouare took over are: a 1-1 home draw vs fifth-placed Montpellier; a narrow 1-0 defeat at Bordeaux; a stunning 6-3 French Cup win at high-flying St Etienne; and a 2-0 victory over fellow strugglers Monaco last weekend that sports daily L'Equipe described as "one of their best performances of the season."
In contrast, Angers' form has flatlined for weeks. They've won just one of their last 10 matches in all competitions (W1-D6-L3), becoming the division's draw specialists through a run of soporific performances. A well-organised side, their lack of a player to score 10 goals in a single campaign is a serious problem: top marksman Stephane Bahoken has netted just six goals this season at a rate of a goal every 246 minutes. No other Angers players has scored more than three times.
The draw's a tempting selection at [3.45]. Dijon's recent flamboyant French Cup victory shows they can win on the road (they're [4.2] to do so here). Yet the best selection is a lay of Angers, as you'd record a profit if Dijon won or the game finished all-square.
Leaders will be too strong for Lyon
Lyon vs PSG (3rd vs 1st)
Sun, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video
The opportunity to back PSG at close to evens to win a Ligue 1 game hardly ever comes up, meaning it's too good to pass over this weekend. The visitors' price of [1.95] looks too big no matter what criteria you apply to test it.
PSG are two places and 16 points ahead of Lyon in the league table despite having played two games fewer. Their away record is an outstanding W7-D2-L0, and since those two draws in December, PSG have won four consecutive away games in all competitions, scoring 13 times and recording a positive goal difference of 2.75 per game.
Neymar is out through injury. Manager Thomas Tuchel will have one eye on PSG's Champions League last-16 first leg against Manchester United on February 12 so may rotate. Yet PSG showed no signs of easing off in beating Rennes 4-1 last weekend, and have won handsomely on numerous occasions when resting three or four first-choice players.
Lyon are one of the few Ligue 1 teams with the personnel and pedigree to make PSG's life difficult, but they're erratic: their home record reads W6-D3-L2, with points dropped against Nantes, Bordeaux and Reims, and defeats to Nice and Rennes. Their team's packed with talent - Tanguy Ndombele, Houssem Aouar, Nabil Fekir, Bertrand Traore, Memphis Depay and Moussa Dembele - but this sextet of internationals and youth internationals rarely all play well at the same time.
The chances of Lyon halting the PSG juggernaut ploughing its way towards another Ligue 1 title are overrated. Back the visitors to collect another three points to maintain their supremacy at the top.
James’ 2018-19 P/L
Lay Angers at home to Dijon @ [2.06]
Back PSG to win at Lyon @ [1.95]