French Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Tips: Euro hangover to cost Marseille

Gabon and Marseille striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and team-mates will be exhausted this weekend

After making a profit on Marseille's Europa League game in midweek, James Eastham suggests opposing Jean-Louis Gasset's side in the French top flight this weekend...

Le Havre vs Metz - Sun, 12.00

Metz are a strong selection to take something from their potentially crucial basement battle on Sunday afternoon.

The visitors are currently in one of the two relegation positions, with Le Havre just two points and two places above them. In the Match Odds market, however, the value lies with the visitors.

Le Havre are 2.265/4 to win, while Metz are 3.7511/4, and the Draw is 3.259/4. The short price on the hosts makes no sense when you look at their form.

Le Havre are W1-D3-L8 from their last 12 matches, meaning there's no track record of success heading into the match. And, to make matters worse for manager Luka Elsner, two of his more important players - left wing-back Christopher Operi and attacker Andre Ayew - are suspended this weekend.

In contrast, Metz are in good form. Two games ago, they showed great heart to come back from 4-1 down to lose 4-3 at second-placed Brest. And then, last weekend, they ran out deserving 2-1 winners at home to top-half Lens.

Metz also have the game's stand-out performer in Georges Mikautadze. The Georgia international re-joined Metz - for whom he was 23-goal top scorer in Ligue 2 last season - on loan from Ajax in January.

Since returning to the club, he's struck seven goals in 12 appearances, including two in each of his last two outings. At 5/23.50 in the Anytime Goalscorer market, he's worth considering.

Mikautadze's presence on the pitch significantly improves Metz's chances of avoiding defeat. The smart bet is to lay the hosts.

Lay Le Havre @ 2.35/4

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Toulouse v Marseille - Sun, 18.00

There are several reasons why Toulouse will be quietly confident of avoiding defeat at home to Marseille this weekend.

The first is their own good form: Toulouse have taken seven points from their last three matches, a run that includes their impressive 2-1 win at Rennes last weekend.

Outstanding support is another factor in their favour. Toulouse are expecting their largest home crowd of the season, which is bound to motivate the players.

The third is that Toulouse can still qualify for Europe. As many as the top seven in the final Ligue 1 standings may qualify for Europe this time around, which means Toulouse - just five points below seventh place heading into the weekend - are still in the mix.

It will be a tired Marseille side that takes to the field. We made a profit with our selections on their Europa League quarter-final second leg at home to Benfica on Thursday night. Marseille eventually went through on penalties - but their bodies and minds will be shattered after two hours of football followed by spot-kicks.

Marseille manager Jean-Louis Gasset has serious team news problems to contend with, too. Five players that would have been candidates for a place in the starting line-up vs Benfica missed that match through injury.

A further two players - defender Samuel Gigot and playmaker Amine Harit - miss this match through suspension. So the team will be below-strength, and potentially very tired as well.

Despite all this, Toulouse are underdogs. The hosts are 2.8815/8 to win the match, with Marseille 2.6613/8 and the Draw 3.3512/5.

Toulouse Draw No Bet is worth considering at 19/201.95. Instead, our selection is Toulouse with a small start on the Asian Handicap. With our pick, you'll make a profit if Toulouse win or the game ends in a draw.

Back Toulouse 0 & +0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.758/11

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Now read our top Bundesliga bets here!

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James' 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 69pts
Returned: +71.07pts
P/L: +2.07pts


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