With a 70% success rate and considerable profit over the past three months, French expert James Eastham picks out the top two selections of the weekend
"Bordeaux's poor record at home after European nights suggests the visitors can get a result."
Bastia +1.0 Asian Handicap @ [1.99]
Bordeaux v Bastia (10th v 13th) Sun, 16:00 GMT
Regular readers of this column may recall we successfully opposed Bordeaux at home to Brest a fortnight ago (Brest ran out 2-0 winners).
The circumstances for Bordeaux's home match against Bastia this weekend are virtually identical so I'm perfectly happy to take on the hosts again.
Bordeaux's home record has been poor all season (W4-D6-L3) and they've been particularly poor in front of their own fans immediately after Europa League ties (W0-D2-L2). After a mentally and physically draining 1-0 defeat against Benfica at the Estadio da Luz on Thursday night Bordeaux are likely to follow the pattern of their season by being below-par on returning to domestic matters.
On the odd occasion Bordeaux do win at home, they rarely do so by much. Of their four home victories, only one (2-0 v Valenciennes on Feb 2) has come by more than one goal. The other three were all 1-0 final scorelines.
Bordeaux's form regardless of venue or European commitments is generally very poor as well. They have lost their last four league games, scoring just one goal in the process. The €2.5 million sale of Yoan Gouffran to Newcastle in January has more than a whiff of false economy about it. Gouffran's departure has robbed Bordeaux of their only reliable source of goals, which in turn has seen the club fall away from the race for European places.
All of which makes the [1.55] on Bordeaux to win look far too short. I would lay the hosts, back the draw or support Bastia +1.0 Asian Handicap. With the Asian Handicap selection you'll make money if Bastia win or draw and get your stakes back if Bordeaux win by a single goal.
Lyon v Marseille (2nd v 3rd) Sun, 20:00 GMT
Two points and five points respectively behind PSG, Lyon and Marseille still see themselves as genuine title contenders.
It's hard to see either club overhauling [1.26] title favourites PSG but the fact these two clubs are within touching distance makes their big Sunday-night clash an exciting prospect with plenty at stake.
The Match Odds market looks about right (Lyon are [2.26] favourites, Marseille [3.6]) so goals are a better option. Lyon always play to win at home and their positive approach ought to lead to chances and goals at both ends.
The stats bear this out. Lyon have scored 27 home goals, the division's joint-highest tally. Seven of their 13 home games have had over 2.5 goals.
Marseille's goals stats point less strongly towards a high-scoring game but Lyon's positive approach should set the tone, handing Marseille chances at the other end. Lyon have conceded in 10 of 17 home games in all competitions, which is enough to suggest Marseille will find the net this weekend.
James Eastham has made 55.63pts profit from 427pts staked on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets since August 2008 (13.0% ROI), including 16.2% ROI this season. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham