Ligue 1 2020/21 Tips: Infogol's season preview

Jake Osgathorpe
20 August 2020

Lille boss Christophe Gatlier can enjoy another good season in Ligue 1

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The domestic action in France returns to our screens this weekend, with Ligue 1 getting underway having curtailed the 19/20 season, and with the help of expected goals (xG), Jake Osgathorpe looks at the value in the outright markets...

"Lille provide the value. They have been excellent for the last two seasons, finishing second in 2018/19 (3rd xG table) and fourth in 2019/20, with Les Dogues sitting second in our xG table last season."

The 2019/20 French Ligue 1 season was cut short by the pandemic - the final matches took place in Gameweek 28 - and the decision was made that the final positions would be determined by points-per-game.

That meant PSG, unsurprisingly, won the title again, while Marseille and Rennes made up the top three. Lille and Nice completed the top five, and Reims also qualified for the Europa League after they finished sixth and PSG won both domestic trophies.

Somewhat shockingly, Lyon finished the season in seventh and missed out on European football, while Toulouse and Amiens were relegated, and the relegation play-off was scrapped meaning only two sides went down.

The Title

The favourites to win the 2020/21 Ligue 1 title are PSG. Shock.

Les Parisiens are looking to win their eighth league title in nine seasons, and given the way they played last season it is very difficult to look beyond them picking up another crown.

Thomas Tuchel's side averaged 3.23 xGF and 0.81 xGA per game across their 27 league games in 2019/20, putting them in a different stratosphere to every other Ligue 1 side.

Expected Goals Scatter Plot - Ligue 1 2019/20

PSG are 1.06 (94%) to win the title on the Betfair Exchange, but the Infogol model suggests it is even more likely that they will dominate French football again, giving them a 99.8% chance of reigning supreme.

The Top 3

Marseille were the runners-up last season, but were extremely fortunate to finish second according to expected goals, sitting fifth in our xG table based on xPoints.

Andre Villas-Boas led his side into the 2020/21 Champions League, but their process (1.27 xGF, 1.11 xGA per game) was far from impressive, and, unless they improve, it will be hard for them to replicate their second-place finish.

They haven't strengthened their squad, so it is hard to see them being as successful this season. Infogol gives them just a 22.8% (4.4) chance of finishing in the top three, so the 2.1 (48%) available makes no appeal at all.

Rennes sprang a surprise to finish third and, like Marseille, they were fortunate to do so, sitting sixth in our xG table. They are understandably outsiders in the top-three market, and Infogol agrees, predicting they will finish sixth this season.

Lyon have caught the eye in recent weeks due to their Champions League run, where they knocked out Serie A winners Juventus and Premier League runners-up Manchester City.

Les Gones finished the shortened 2019/20 French season in seventh, but were unfortunate to miss out on European football, sitting third in our xG table based on xPoints (1.28 xGF, 0.94 xGA per game).

Rudi Garcia's side are priced at 1.67 (60%) in the top-three market, but there is no value in that price, for all Infogol suggests they should be odds on (51.5% - 1.94).

% chance of finishing in Top Three of Ligue 1 20/21

Monaco have had an upheaval behind the scenes over the summer, with ex-Bayern Munich manager Niko Kovač appointed as coach and former Red Bull (Leipzig, New York, Bragantino) sporting director Paul Mitchell appointed to oversee things. They will be an intriguing watch, but there isn't any value in backing them.

Lille provide the value. They have been excellent for the last two seasons, finishing second in 2018/19 (3rd xG table) and fourth in 2019/20, with Les Dogues sitting second in our xG table last season.

That is some impressive consistency, even more so when you consider the squad churn that they have seen in that time, and this off-season has been no different.

Their top-scorer from last season, Victor Osimhen, who averaged 0.58 xG/avg match has been sold this summer to Napoli for a huge fee, but Lille have brought in the highly-touted young Canadian Jonathan David from Gent, which is an exciting signing.

Infogol thinks that they are being underestimated and make them the third best team in the league according to forecast position, behind PSG and Lyon. We calculate that they have a 44.1% (2.27) chance of finishing in the top three in 20/21, making the 10/3 (23%) available a huge value bet.

Top Scorer

Last season's gong was shared by PSG's Kylian Mbappe and Monaco's Wissam Ben Yedder, with both netting 18 times in the shortened campaign.

It is not hard to make a case for Mbappe going in again (1.91), with the French youngster averaging a whopping 1.05 xG/avg match in Ligue 1 last season, but he could have competition from his teammate Neymar (3.75), who was the league's xG/avg match leader with 1.08.

Lyon's Moussa Dembele (8.0) finished the campaign with 16 goals, but he is playing limited minutes for his side at the moment, and for a team that didn't really create that many chances on a regular basis last season.

A big priced runner that I like the look of is Lille's new frontman Jonathan David.

He is priced up at 51.0 with Betfair's Sportsbook, and, given the service his predecessor Osimhen received and the fact he netted 30 goals in 60 Belgian league games for Gent, that price could prove to be too big, especially given the three places on offer each-way.

For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net

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