Football Bet of the Day: Wolves will scrap to defend their crown

Kevin Hatchard
27 October 2015

Dieter Hecking's Wolfsburg are rock-solid at home, and have revenge on their minds

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Last week our Bundesliga columnist Kevin Hatchard predicted Bayern Munich would fail to win at Arsenal, and he's opposing Pep Guardiola's men again tonight...

"Much of the focus will be on Bayern's recent 5-1 win over Wolfsburg, but the Wolves are incredibly strong at home, and beat Bayern on penalties in the German Supercup."

Lay Bayern Munich to qualify at 1.162/13

Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich
Tuesday October 28, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1

We started the week with a brutal gut-punch, as Randers and OB fell just short of what we needed for our Over 2.5 Goals bet. It was 1-1 after 31 minutes, but despite the hosts having an array of presentable chances to score, that's the way it stayed. Ugh.

We press on, and we're heading to Germany for a mouth-watering clash between Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich in the DFB Cup.

Just a few weeks ago, Bayern blew Wolfsburg away 5-1 at the Allianz Arena, as the extraordinary Robert Lewandowski smashed a host of records by scoring five goals in nine second-half minutes. What has often been forgotten about that game is that Bayern were outplayed in the first half, went 1-0 down and could've been two behind had Joshua Guilavogui scored instead of striking the frame of the goal.

When these two sides last met at the Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg held the German champions to a 1-1 draw, and went on to win the German Supercup on penalties. Since then, the Wolves have won six of their seven home games in all competitions, including Champions League victories over CSKA Moscow and PSV Eindhoven.

Dieter Hecking's Wolfsburg have built up an incredible home record in recent seasons. They haven't lost a Bundesliga match on home soil since March 2014, and since then they have won 20 out of 27 at home in the league. In all competitions, Wolfsburg have only lost two of their last 38 matches on home turf.

Bayern are on an excellent domestic run of ten Bundesliga wins out of ten, and they thrashed a normally resolute FC Koln side 4-0 at the weekend. That said, they tripped up at Arsenal in their last away game, and it's worth remembering they were thrashed 4-1 the last time they visited the Volkswagen Arena in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg no longer have Bayern's chief tormentor Kevin De Bruyne in their ranks, but new signing Max Kruse is in fine form, and scored a hat-trick at home to Hoffenheim less than a fortnight ago.

Wolfsburg are the cup holders, they won't give that crown up without a fight, and they have a point to prove after that mauling at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are completely dominant domestically, and as we saw at the Emirates, that can make it tough for them to raise their level against strong opposition. As crazy as it sounds, Bayern haven't actually hit top gear that often this term, and I think they are underpriced ahead of this tie.

If we trust in Wolfsburg's home record, there are a number of ways to play this. You could lay Bayern outright at 1.51/2, so if Wolfsburg win or the game goes to extra-time, you have a chunky winner. I'm going to come out swinging and go a step further, because we can lay Bayern in the To Qualify market at 1.162/13. Bayern lost on penalties to Wolfsburg in the Supercup, and were beaten on spot-kicks by Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals of this tournament last season.

Recommended Bet

Lay Bayern Munich to qualify at 1.162/13

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 144

Points Returned: 135.49

P/L: -8.51 points

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