We're going back to Switzerland, and Kev hopes for a cracking first half between Wil and Aarau.
"Nine of Aarau's ten post-lockdown games have featured at least two first-half goals, and they've conceded more goals before the break than anyone in the division."
Swiss stars won't hang about
Wil v Aarau
Friday 24 July, 19:30
We weren't quite on the Nottingham Forest scale of falling agonisingly short last night, but it was still annoyingly that the third goal we needed from Kalmar's 1-1 draw with Sirius never arrived. We move back to Switzerland, because Wil are facing Aarau in the second-tier Challenge League, and there's every reason to think that we'll see a rip-roaring start.
Neither team is in relegation danger, but neither is anywhere near the promotion places either, so they are totally free of pressure. The avenue to profit here should be goals, as Wil's 32 games have featured 102 goals, while Aarau's 32 league matches have featured a whopping 131 goals.
The market has adjusted to this, with Over 3.5 Goals trading at [1.84]. Since the post-COVID resumption, nine of Aarau's ten league games have featured at least four goals, including a 4-1 win over tonight's opponents Wil. As for the visitors, five of their ten second-tier outings since the league resumed have seen an Over 3.5 Goals bet land.
The avenue I'm heading down is the Over 1.5 First Half Goals market, which yields a price of evens. That bet has landed in all but one of Aarau's post-lockdown games, and six of Wil's last ten league outings. Aarau have conceded 37 first-half goals, an even worse record than rock-bottom Chiasso, while Wil's tally of 27 is the worst in the top half.
Points Staked: 107
Points Returned: 88.6
P/L: -18.4 points
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Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals at [2.0]