FA Cup Betting: Lay Hartlepool, back Newport

Ian Lamont
04 December 2015

We're glad you're here. A fan greets Gary Neville and friends during a friendly at Salford City

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Ian Lamont picks out some potential shocks involving League Two sides in the FA Cup second round - including a big priced Forest Green Rovers to oust Oxford, as well as the Exiles from Wales to continue their good form...

"Newport are nine games unbeaten in a remarkable turnaround under John Sheridan. Remarkable, considering how badly they were doing under Terry Butcher. It doesn't say much for the former England hero's management."

Salford City 4.03/1 v Hartlepool 2.0421/20; the draw 3.814/5
Friday, 19:45
Live on BBC 2

Salford City get a second bite at the televised match cherry this season - much to the chagrin of critics who forced the BBC to deny being biased towards the whole "Manchester United class of 92" story.

There was negativity when the BBC spent money celebrating United when pretty much any team could name a fantastic year in its history - even Hartlepool.

High profile United ex-pros Gary Neville - now manager of Valencia - Nicky Butt and Paul Scholes are among those who own the club, a factor which just adds juice to the media's glare, but this is a fourth time in two years that a non-league club will host a League Two side on a Friday night - and all three games have gone to the hosts.

Pools were victims in the second round last year to Blyth Spartans, while Exeter lost to Warrington a round earlier. Paul Murray received his marching orders at Hartlepool after the Spartans' defeat, which led to the appointment of the more streetwise Ronnie Moore. But after a great start to the season 2015-16 has not turned into a bundle of laughs for him either.

In the last round, at least they overcame Cheltenham, high flyers in the conference. But Kudus Oyenuga, Jake Gray, Kai Naismith (Portsmouth) and Mikael Mandron (Sunderland) have to show they have the power to grind out results like these (if the loanees are allowed to play).

The Evo-Stik Premier side will fancy their chances. The Ammies created lots against Notts County, Danny Webber and Richie Allen grabbing the spotlight with the goals.

Moore will have had the hosts carefully watched and, he hopes, worked out. But the reverse will be true. The anticipated price is not that huge on the home win, being 4.03/1.

The way to play this is to lay the visitors at 2.0421/20 with a view to cashing out at 4.03/1 or so if the game remains goalless or they go behind. The visitors might well end up coming through this banana skin, but - for them - the process may not be pretty on a nerve-jangling night.

Recommended Bet:
Lay Hartlepool at 2.0421/20 to cash out

Barnet 2.111/10 v Newport 3.55/2; the draw 3.55/2
Saturday, 15:00

Barnet were the stand-out candidates to cause an upset in the last round and duly obliged at home to Blackpool. The layers foresaw the victory and priced them at 2.56/4 to beat a (struggling) side a division above, even though the Bees were not exactly buzzing around the high end of League Two.

Now, they are 2.26/5 to defeat a fellow League Two side and the price is just one of many reasons to oppose them. Mad Dog Martin Allen might just have had his day in this season's FA Cup, despite some very obvious and capable talents in his side.

Aaron Mclean is the most likeable of experienced assets in attack, where John Akinde is surprising this analyst with a half-decent return of six goals in 19 appearances (17 starts). Michael Gash, with another six goals, is clearly no pushover either.

When you have a cup match looming, often a bad result the game (a 3-1 home defeat to Mansfield) or even a bad run (three defeats and a draw) beforehand can be excused. However, those types of runs tend to be reserved for when a team has a potentially huge cup tie against far better rated opponents - and this isn't a case in point. I'm talking a match against a Premiership side, for example.

The reasons that Allen's men are such a short price include a brilliant run of results at The Hive (before Mansfield) of a draw and before that five straight wins, plus in their last three home games they have not conceded a goal.

However, Newport are nine games unbeaten (five of them draws) in a remarkable turnaround under John Sheridan. Remarkable, considering how badly they were doing under Terry Butcher. It doesn't say much for the former England hero's management.

When you have just emphatically put to bed your first home win for eight months by beating Luton Town 3-0, with new boy Oliver McBurnie (on loan from Swansea) scoring a hat-trick.

Whether he plays or not, Newport's players know that they have competition for places and if they don't perform the boss, who has a League Two promotion badge to his name, will bring in quality alternatives. Lenell John-Lewis (four goals in six games) and Scott Boden have also notched goals of late but need a few more to keep their places. This could just be the Exiles' moment.

Recommended Bet
Back Newport @ 3.55/2

Yeovil 2.68/5 v Stevenage 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2
Saturday, 15:00

It is likely that several prospective managers will be in the stands at Huish Park, eyeing the vacant manager's position following Paul Sturrock's exit, a fruitless eight months after being appointed. As one report suggested this week, the 1,000 days since Yeovil were promoted to the Championship have not been the happiest of times as they struggle against a third successive relegation.

Marcus Stewart, assistant to Darrell Clarke at Bristol Rovers, is the favourite to take over the hotseat and there are some left-field candidates including Bruce Rioch, who history might judge as "the one before Wenger" at Arsenal. He has not managed since 2008.

Ryan Bird has done his bit for the Glovers, with seven goals, and Harry Cornick with five, but results have been pretty terrible and there is little reason to think, even if they do have a new boss by Saturday (unlikely) that it will reverse their fortunes. They need a bit of time, like Newport and Cambridge did to adjust to a new man this season.

Stevenage, by comparison, appear to be in a good place and on a five-game unbeaten run which started with the cup win over Gillingham, Chris Whelpdale scoring against his old side. Clearly on a roll, he bagged a treble in the victory over Morecambe and it seems the visitors have the better chance to take a victory.

Recommended Bet:
Back Stevenage @ 2.77/4

Oxford United 1.548/15 v Forest Green Rovers 8.07/1; the draw 4.03/1
Sunday, 14:00

Oxford United might be cockahoop at the top of League Two, but at price like this in the FA Cup there is only one way to bet - and that's against them.

The visitors are quite capable of taking advantage of any off day, as Darren Carter and Elliott Frear proved when scoring the goals in what observers felt was a slightly fortunate win at AFC Wimbledon in the last round.

You could dismiss the Conference as an easier division than League Two, but with only one automatic promotion place it is incredibly hard to sustain a campaign to gain actually earn that spot and Forest Green are giving it a proper go, lying second. They won their first nine games of the season and are on a run of seven unbeaten, including drawing with leaders Cheltenham.

Their away form is pretty healthy (5 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats) while strikers Jon Parkin (Fleetwood) and Aaron O'Connor (Newport) have valuable Football League experience. Dale Bennett's dismissal last weekend was unfortunate, as he has been a regular in defence.

Rovers are trying to build for a challenge at the Football League, while concerns have been raised that their debt levels have risen to £5.4 million after a second year of heavy losses as their owner Dale Vince invests in a £100million sports complex as well as the team.

Even Crawley Town only made about £1.5m from their FA Cup run as a non-league side - and they did that by playing at Old Trafford.

As long as the announcement about those losses doesn't leave doubts in the squad's mind, they will enjoy the chance to have a crack at the U's and test themselves at this higher level. I could go for the home lay, but the away win seems a big carrot at a big price.

Recommended Bet
Back Forest Green Rovers @ 8.07/1

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