Arsenal 1.42/5 v Swansea 10.519/2; The Draw 5.24/1
Arsenal have become so unreliable that you really don't want to go big on them at 1.42/5, even when they have home advantage and face one of the Premier League's struggling sides.
Presented with a fantastic opportunity to win the title the Gunners have won just two of their last seven league games, and they're surprisingly failing to capitalise on home advantage. A defeat to Chelsea in front of their own fans was followed by a goalless draw at home to Southampton, and just last week they failed to beat a second string Hull side in the FA Cup at the Emirates.
Swansea haven't been any better of late however. They strung a few results together under new boss Francesco Guidolin but they've since gone four games without a win, including back-to-back defeats to Spurs and Southampton.
Arsenal ought to win, but I don't think it will be easy so given that they've failed to score at the Emirates Stadium in four of their last six games, with 66% of those matches witnessing fewer than three goals - the same percentage as Swansea's last six games - then I'm happy to back Under 2.5 Goals here.
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.166/5
Stoke 2.021/1 v Newcastle 4.3100/30; The Draw 3.55
It's been a strange start to 2016 for Stoke. They put up an excellent showing in the Capital One Cup semi-final to Liverpool, winning 1-0 at Anfield but losing out on a Wembley final in heartbreaking fashion on a penalty shoot-out.
It seemed that the Potters' league form suffered as a result of that two-legged tie; Mark Hughes' men went six Premier League game without a win at the start of the year before getting back on track at Bournemouth 10 days ago. They followed that up with a win over Aston Villa on Saturday and they look a decent bet to make it three league wins on the spin.
The main reason for that is Newcastle's dreadful away form. The Magpies remain in the relegation zone, thanks largely to their performances on the road. Steve McClaren's men have lost six consecutive away games in all competitions, conceding 10 goals in their last three.
With Stoke improving again, and usually a tough nut to crack at the Britannia Stadium, a home win has to be the call.
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.021/1 (best bet)
West Ham 4.03/1 v Tottenham 2.0621/20; The Draw 3.65
I've read in a few places that West Ham are being underestimated - from a Match Odds perspective - ahead of their home game with Tottenham, and I can understand that given they are sixth in the table, just four points off a Champions League slot.
Slaven Bilic's men have also lost just one of their last eight - to in-form Southampton - so odds of around 4.03/1 about them beating Spurs will surely tempt many people to part with their cash.
But the way I see it is that Tottenham are in fantastic form, especially away from home, and I'm finding it impossible to oppose them.
No club in the Premier League has lost fewer games than Mauricio Pochettino's men this season, and on their travels they are unbeaten in 13 games in all competitions, a run that has seen them take 16 points from the last 18 available to them away from home.
In that sequence of excellent away results the Lilywhites have won at Southampton and Manchester City, so given that West Ham have generally been better away from home than they have at Upton Park I believe Spurs to be a fair price to take all three points.
Back Tottenham to Win @ 2.0621/20
Man Utd 1.654/6 v Watford 6.411/2; The Draw 4.03/1
They say a week is a long time in football. At the start of last week Louis van Gaal was a dead man walking, the United fans were baying for his blood, and Jose Mourinho was being line-up to take over at Old Trafford.
By the end of the week Van Gaal was throwing himself to the ground and being applauded, United had progressed in two cup competitions and moved to within three points of their noisy neighbours in the Premier League, they'd scored 11 goals in three games, and a young striker by the name of Marcus Rashford had emerged.
But don't think that LVG is out of the woods just yet. Fail to beat Watford on Wednesday night and the Dutchman will be back as the media's number one target, and I for one am prepared to ignore United's latest heroics and oppose them here.
Victories over Shrewsbury and FC Midtjylland were virtually penalty kicks, and United got pretty fortunate - though they did play well in spells - that Arsenal didn't turn up on Sunday.
We don't have to remember too far back to recall some dire performances from this United side, and most of them cam in front of their own fans.
Watford will be extremely well organised and they'll frustrate United here. The Hornets have conceded just four goals in their last eight league and cup games and I'm happy to wager that they'll take at least a point from Old Trafford by laying the hosts here.
Back Lay Man Utd to Win @ 1.664/6
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