Watford v West Ham: Goals likely at Vicarage Road in final game

Simon Mail
11 May 2019

Watford head coach Javi Gracia has guided the Hornets to the FA Cup final

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Watford play their final league game against West Ham with only a week until their FA Cup final at Wembley and Simon Mail previews this weekend's fixture...

"Watford have struggled for clean sheets recently with the team conceding in their last 11 league games but they do offer a threat going forward."

Watford v West Ham
Sunday, 15:00

All eyes turning towards Wembley final

Watford have enjoyed a remarkable season under Javi Gracia, regardless of the outcome of next weekend's FA Cup final. The Hornets have reached the Wembley final for only the second time in their history and it is not a major surprise their results in the Premier League have dipped since their unforgettable semi-final win over Wolves.

Gracia's side can no longer finish in the top seven and will have to pull off a monumental upset against Manchester City next week if they are to qualify for the Europa League. Tenth-placed Watford are still on course for a top half finish though which is significant progress on previous years. The side come in off back-to-back defeats after losing 2-1 at home to Wolves and 3-0 at Chelsea on Sunday.

West Ham finishing season strongly

It has certainly been an up and down season for West Ham with Manuel Pellegrini's side recovering from a dreadful start having lost their first four league games. There is still the sense the Hammers have underachieved to an extent although the team could yet finish in the top ten if they can defeat Watford this weekend.

West Ham have lacked consistency throughout the campaign but their last two matches have shown what they are capable of producing. Michail Antonio's goal gave them a 1-0 win at Tottenham as they became the first side to win at Spurs' new stadium. The Irons followed this up with a dominant 3-0 win at home to Southampton, with the mercurial Marko Arnautovic scoring twice.

Hosts look short enough for victory

Watford are 2.35/4 favourites to win their final league game but these odds look too short considering their form and potential FA Cup distractions. It is possible Gracia will alter the team to protect some players ahead of the final and the Hornets' form has tailed off recently. Their only win in the last five games was at relegated Huddersfield and Watford have gone three games without a home victory.

West Ham are 3.211/5 to end with three consecutive wins and their price certainly looks more appealing than the hosts. The Hammers are finishing with a flourish and will be eyeing a top ten spot with victory this weekend. Countering this, West Ham have only won one of their last nine away league matches which dampens enthusiasm in backing the visitors.

The draw is trading at 3.9 and this looks fairly generous. There is not a great deal at stake in this game and neither team would be too disappointed if it ended level. But only one of West Ham's last 11 matches have ended in a draw while Watford have only been held once in their last 12 league outings. On balance, it looks worth swerving this market for a game where the favourites do not appeal and the inconsistent visitors cannot be relied upon with much confidence.

Goals expected in open contest

It would be no surprise if Sunday's game resulted in an open clash with plenty of goals. Watford have struggled for clean sheets recently with the team conceding in their last 11 league games but they do offer a threat going forward. West Ham have conceded in nine of their last ten away matches in the competition so both teams should net this weekend.

Three of West Ham's last four games have seen at least three goals scored and this also applies to Watford too. The Hornets' last six home matches have seen a goal scored in the first half so an early breakthrough looks likely. Using Betfair's Same Game Multi, you can back both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and over 1.5 goals in the first half at 1.89.

Opta Stat

Antonio has scored more league goals against Watford than he has against any other side in his career with six. The West Ham winger is 13/5 to score a seventh goal this weekend against the Hornets.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

Simon's Premier League 2018-19 P/L

Staked: 37pts
Return: 43.79pts
P/L: +6.79pts

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