Wales v Hungary: Welsh to book their place at Euro 2020

Wales forward Gareth Bale
Gareth Bale has had plenty to smile about in recent games
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All eyes will be on the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday evening as Wales take on Hungary in a winner-takes-all fixture. Here are Paul Robinson's best bets...

"The hosts are the odds-on favourites for this match, and even though they were beaten in the reverse fixture back in June, both teams have enjoyed an improvement in fortunes since then."

Back Wales @ [1.76]

Wales v Hungary
Tuesday November 19, 19:45

One more big performance required

Wales completed the first half of the job in Azerbaijan on Saturday, but the second part will be tougher, and they will need to be at or near their best to get the win they need.

An early goal for Ryan Giggs' men would have settled the nerves at the weekend, but they would have also been pleased to get a second, and also keep a clean sheet - only their second in seven outings.

Aaron Ramsay was only fit enough for the bench in that game, but he came on for Gareth Bale after an hour, and the pair should be primed for this crunch fixture at the Cardiff City Stadium. In a further boost, Joe Allen is back from suspension.

Hungary letting things slip away

The Hungarians have seen their form tail off in recent games, but they remain in second place in Group E, knowing that a win - or possibly even a draw - would be good enough to see them qualify for next summer's tournament.

Marco Rossi's men warmed up for this game with a 2-1 friendly defeat to Uruguay in Budapest, but prior to that they did beat Azerbaijan in October.

As far as the team news goes, Zsolt Kalmar will be missing for the trip to Wales as he picked up an injury against Uruguay. The only other expected change is Peter Gulacsi returning in goal.

Welsh have the momentum

The hosts are the odds-on favourites for this match, and even though they were beaten in the reverse fixture back in June, both teams have enjoyed a subsequent improvement in fortunes.

Since that defeat, Ryan Giggs' side haven't lost any of their next five - three wins and two draws - and at home they beat Azerbaiajan and Belarus, while earning a decent point against Croatia.

Hungary, meanwhile, have played five and lost four since that June victory, and both of their away games were defeats. That included a 2-1 loss to Montenegro, and we all saw how poor they were against England last week.

The Welsh can still fall back on the play-offs if they fail to get the job done here, but with Bale and Ramsey set to start the game together for the first time in Group E, the [1.76] for the home win looks too good to refuse.

The visitors are [5.4], which is far too short based on recent evidence, and the draw doesn't do either team any favours at the [3.9] mark.

Goals could flow in Cardiff

It was another case of Under 2.5 Goals for Wales in their last match on Saturday, which means they come into this game on a run of four straight outings to end with two goals or fewer.

The odds of that becoming five is understandably quite short at [1.72], but I wouldn't want to be backing it. Obviously things can be quite tense early on in a high stakes match, but as neither side want a draw, I am tempted by overs at [2.3].

Four of the Hungarians last five have seen over 2.5 backers collect, and while I expect Wales to win, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last three in front of their own fans.

A good betting tactic could be to wait until 15-20 minutes into the game before backing over 2.5. If it is quite cagey early on, that [2.3] will become a lot bigger, and even if it is 0-0 at half-time, I still wouldn't rule out three second half goals.

For more information on backing and laying on the Exchange, check out this link.

2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 27pts
Returned: 24.42pts
P/L: -2.58pts

Paul Robinson,

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