After a European tie on Thursday evening, Paul Robinson thinks that Napoli have to be taken on at below evens for their trip to Verona in Italy's Serie A.
"There is no denying that Napoli have the better team, but Verona will fancy their chances in front of their own fans having had an extra few days rest than their opponents."
Verona v Napoli
Sunday March 15, 17:00
Live on BT Sport Extra
Following their impressive season last year that saw them finish in 10th place, Hellas Verona, aren't quite living up to that standard this time around. They aren't struggling too badly - eight points clear of the relegation zone - but they are in 15th place, half a dozen points behind Milan in 10th.
Andrea Mandorlini's side had gone through a sticky spell that began with back to back hammerings from Juventus in the Coppa Italia and then Serie A, and while they managed to bounce back with a 1-0 victory over Atalanta, 'Gialloblu' then went on to lose their next three outings.
Things have taken a turn for the better in the last few weeks however as they earned draws with Roma and Milan, and beat Cagliari in Sardinia. Verona have won two of their last four at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi and, as already mentioned, they managed to avoid defeat against second placed, Roma, on this ground recently.
Napoli are pushing for qualification into the Champions League and they will have their sights set on finishing in second place. They are only four points adrift of that position and if they can juggle Europa League action with their Serie A fixtures, they certainly have the players to overhaul both Roma and Lazio.
I have my concerns about Rafa Benitez's men this evening though as they had to work hard to come from behind to beat Dinamo Moskva on Thursday. Prior to that they had gone three without a victory and they've lost their last two matches away from Naples - a 3-1 defeat at Palermo and then a 1-0 reverse at Torino.
There is no denying that Napoli have the better team, but Verona will fancy their chances in front of their own fans having had an extra few days rest than their opponents. That's why, with Napoli trading at around the 1.8910/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Napoli v Verona @ 1.8910/11
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 72 pts
Returned: 59.72 pts
P/L: - 12.28 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)