This week's Value Hunter is firmly ensconced in the Sunderland camp at the Stadium of Light at a huge 9.417/2 to beat high-flying Manchester City. 'Preposterous!' we hear you cry. But read on, dear bettor, read on...
"While they've been utterly dominant at the Etihad, Pellegrini's men have stuttered away from home so far this season, dropping points at Stoke as well as losing at Cardiff and Aston Villa - hardly three teams that are likely to set the world on fire during this Premier League campaign."
Sunderland have had a pretty torrid time so far this season, and Gus Poyet is the man tasked with clearing up the mess left by Paolo Di Canio. In a way, one can only stand back and admire how efficient the controversial Italian was at turning the north east outfit into a shambling mess. Say what you like about Paolo, but he gets things done.
At first glance, Sunderland look to have no chance against serial top-of-the-table botherers Man City, but hold on. Let's look at the reasons why the home side might just be able to record a famous win...
1. Sunderland's recent home record against City is very good
Three 1-0 wins in a row for Sunderland against this weekend's visitors tells its own story. In fact, Manchester City haven't won at the Stadium of Light since August 2008. Over five long years ago.
2. Man City have key personnel out
David Silva, Vincent Kompany and Stevan Jovetic are all definitely out of the encounter with injury. In addition to this, Matija Nastasic, Fernandinho and Javi Garcia all face late fitness tests and it's unlikely that all three of them will be available to play. Throw a goalkeeping crisis into the mix (who does Manuel Pellegrini go with? Stick with Costel Pantilimon or switch back to Joe Hart?) and you've got the makings of a disjointed side.
Sunderland, on the other hand, could well have a full squad to choose from, provided Emanuele Giaccherini shakes off a troublesome back injury.
3. Man City haven't convinced on the road this season yet
While they've been utterly dominant at the Etihad, Pellegrini's men have stuttered away from home so far this season, dropping points at Stoke as well as losing at Cardiff and Aston Villa - hardly three teams that are likely to set the world on fire during this Premier League campaign. City are vulnerable on the road, and Pellegrini knows it.
4. Sunderland have shown improvement
Sunderland are showing glimpses of a side ready to shake the shackles of the previous regime off once and for all and start to express themselves. They seem more confident, less scared of making mistakes and more united under Gus Poyet. Unlucky against Hull, Poyet has recorded wins against bitter rivals Newcastle as well as Southampton in the Capital One Cup.
Of course, Manchester City are obviously much more likely to win this game and in the shape of Sergio Aguero they have one of the world's standout strikers. But should Sunderland be 9.417/2 to win? The Value Hunter doesn't think so. In his preview of the game, Jaymes Monte recommends a lay of the away side. The Value Hunter is brave enough to go one step further.