It was so nearly a glorious start for the Value Hunter when Southampton avoided defeat at Old Trafford last Saturday, so encouraged by that selection our big-price finder is staying in the Premier League for this week's value selection...
"Against a well organised Hammers side not conceding many goals on the road, the value definitely lies with Sam Allardyce's men."
Swansea 1.774/5 v West Ham 5.49/2; Draw 3.8514/5
Kick-Off: Sunday, 16:00
Swansea ran out seemingly comfortable 4-0 winners over Sunderland at the Liberty Stadium last Saturday, and possibly because of that result Michael Laudrup's men are trading very short to beat West Ham on Sunday afternoon.
But that emphatic scoreline over the Black Cats perhaps paints over a few cracks in the Swans home league form. For starters, last week's victory was Swansea's first league win in front of their home fans since March 2, and it came against statistically the worst team in the Premier League currently.
Prior to last weekend Swansea had played London opponents on home soil four times (Arsenal twice, Spurs, and Fulham) since that win in March and lost them all. And it's worth adding that the 4-0 scoreline over Sunderland flatters the Welsh side somewhat, with Gus Poyet's men having much the better of things in the first half before fading badly in the second.
West Ham meanwhile have conceded just a single goal in four away games this season, shutting out decent outfits like Newcastle, Southampton, and most notably Tottenham in a terrific 0-3 victory. That latter clean sheet is very significant because it came against a side that passes the ball superbly and enjoys lots of possession - just like Swansea will on Sunday afternoon.
Consider also that Laudrup is regularly rotating his squad to cope with the demands of midweek Europa League football. Nothing wrong with that at all, but the Swansea boss doesn't appear to have a strong preference for Premier League football over Europe as he has played much-changed sides - boasting some first team regulars - in both competitions.
All things considered Swansea deserve to be favourites but not at such prohibited odds. Against a well organised Hammers side not conceding many goals on the road, the value definitely lies with Sam Allardyce's men.
Value Hunter Selection
Season P/L (1pt each bet)
Number of bets: 1
P/L: -1 pt