Two and a Half Goals: A quartet of League One selections

The Inside Man
08 September 2012

Colchester boss John Ward

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The Inside Man has turned to League One action for this weekend's Over and Under selections...

"For me both teams should score, but either could nick this, in a game I think will be more open than the bookies expect."

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20

Saturday

Brentford v Colchester

Brentford's results have been a mixed-bag so far. Their opening match against Bury ended 0-0. But we can forgive this, as Bury have since revealed themselves to be one of the biggest Scrooges in the division.

Since then though, the 14 goals in Brentford's last three matches, with both sides scoring in each, suggest a side happy to get involved in open games.

Colchester, you sense, could be about to click at any moment. A stuttering start saw them earn three straight draws. Next came a 4-0 thumping at Tranmere. Even then though, Colchester, by all accounts, had forced the pace and created the better early chances, away to a team that remains unbeaten at the top of the table.

The U's do concede a lot of shots on goal, so it's hard to see them avoiding the sting of the Bees. But John Ward's strugglers did show their character to recover last week against Sheffield United. For me both teams should score, but either could nick this, in a game I think will be more open than the bookies expect.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20

Bury v Preston

Being a Bury fan isn't proving much fun this season. Followers have still to see their side win, and have yet to see them score a goal at Gigg Lane after 180 minutes of action there. That comes despite 13 attempts at goal in last week's loss to Notts County. The problem isn't creating shooting opportunities, it's executing them.

Preston had also enjoyed a gritty start to the season. That is until last weekend's resounding win over Swindon, a result that will have raised a few eyebrows. But we must remember this is a team that scored just once in its previous three league games. Such an unexpected win may just say more about the inconsistency of Swindon than it does anything else.

The most impressive thing for me has been Preston's defence, which has conceded just three goals in four games. That should be enough to handle the misfiring Bury forward line. Throw in the local derby factor and you end up with a fixture that looks short on goals, just as it was last season, when Bury won the corresponding game by a goal to nil.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.834/5

Sunday

Coventry v Stevenage

I fancy Coventry to be contenders for the play-offs towards the end of the season. For now though, they're still finding their feet in a bizarre situation. That's after manager Andy Thorn was sacked just three games in, leaving them to operate under the guidance of two caretaker managers.

Expect Coventry's temporary bosses to focus on not-losing (the surest way to blow their chance of getting the job long-term). They look to have the defence to do this. Three of the Sky Blues' four league games have been low-scoring. And luckily for them, their next opponents are equally focused on defence.

All four of Stevenage's matches have gone under the two and a half goals mark. With two 1-0 wins and two 1-1 draws, this is not a side that will be throwing caution to the wind this Saturday. Their cautious approach under manager Gary Smith has worked well so far, but it's worth noting that none of Stevenage's previous opponents currently sit in the top half of the table. Coventry should prove a step-up from those sides and can do enough to earn at least a point from this fixture.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.695/7

Crawley v Portsmouth

Rightly or wrongly, this a match between two teams who believe in themselves.

It's easy to understand why 4th placed Crawley are confident. Two promotions in two seasons have put them on the crest of a wave. Early-season results have been good and confidence is high. Also, manager Ritchie Barker has several players needing to perform as they look to earn new contracts. The fact that this game will be live on TV should only heighten the desire of those players to perform.

Portsmouth shouldn't be confident. Relegated last season, they again find themselves in the drop zone and with no money to do anything about it. But their predicament seems to have left manager Michael Appleton with a 'nothing to lose' attitude.

His side are winless from four. But each time they went down fighting, the highlight being a 4-2 loss at Carlisle. And don't expect that fearless attitude to stop any time soon, with Appleton this week claiming his side are training well and will soon "give somebody a bit of a spanking".

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0421/20

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