The Two And A Half Goals Column: Few goals to be scored in Camp Nou

The Inside Man
05 May 2012

Will Pep Guardiola's last home game result in a surprisingly low-scoring affair?

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As always, the Inside Man has been hunting down the best value in the Under/Over 2.5 Goals markets across this weekend's football.

The mood is certain to be one of celebration and farewell, and that means intensity-levels could easily drop, along with the players’ concentration levels.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 4.57/2 in Barcelona v Espanyol

Chelsea v Liverpool

This has to be the best bet of the day, in a match between two sides who have found new confidence, and their shooting boots as well.

Why? Well, first of all, forget league form. The FA Cup is a creature in its own right and the approach and results it produces bear little connection to what's seen in the league. To illustrate this, let's look at Liverpool's cup run, which consists of five matches which produced a total of 22 goals. With Liverpool scoring 17 of those, this is clearly a side that scores more freely in the cup than it has all season in the league. Importantly, 'Overs' backers would have won five from five by following the Reds' cup progress.

Chelsea are no slouches either. Half of their cup games have been high-scoring, but it's their last two cup outings in particular which catch the eye, with a 5-2 win over Leicester and that memorable 5-1 win against Tottenham suggesting the Blues are also going for the trophy in an aggressive manner.

Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.3211/8

Barcelona v Espanyol

Here's a fixture that always has the potential to throw up a surprise. This is illustrated by the fact that Barcelona have won only four of their last 11 league meetings with their city rivals. Five times the Spanish giants were held to a draw by their smaller neighbours.

It's also quite clear that Espanyol get themselves 'up' for the Catalan derby, with Barcelona winning a lower percentage of their home games against Espanyol, than against any of their other La Liga rivals over the past seven seasons.

Out of the Champions League, and having just lost the league title to Real Madrid, Barcelona's season is effectively over. With just two games remaining, the chance to rest players carrying injuries, such as Alexis Sanchez and Gerard Pique is sure to be taken.

Also significant, is that this will be Barca's last home fixture of the season, and more importantly, of Pep Guardiola's tenure as manager. The mood is certain to be one of celebration and farewell, and that means intensity-levels could easily drop, along with the players' concentration levels.

Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 4.57/2

Newcastle United v Manchester City

This is certain to be a tense and nervy affair and it's hard to see how those tensions won't be transmitted out onto the pitch.

For City, the approach is almost sure to be one of extreme caution, a tactic they've employed almost without fail in their away fixtures this season. Coming back from a goal down at St James' Park would be a huge hill to climb, and so Roberto Mancini is likely to stick with his favoured method of keeping things tight and trying to build pressure, in search of the opening goal. Wholehearted support of this can be found by looking at City's last ten away games, of which an amazing 90 percent were winners for 'Unders' backers.

As for Newcastle's part in proceedings, Alan Pardew, while of course wanting a win, will understand that even a point could prove priceless in what's become a very tight four-way battle to qualify for the Champions League. With four of Newcastle's last five home games having been low on goals, they too seem likely to favour a cautious approach.

Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.226/5

Manchester United v Swansea City

Expect a backlash at Old Trafford.

Following the Man City match, in which Alex Ferguson employed an uncharacteristically defensive approach, the gameplan is certain to be much more attacking this time out. The pressure of holding the title lead has now been transferred to their city rivals, and I expect Fergie to take his frustrations out on Swansea, by employing perhaps a three-prong strike-force, depending on availability of strikers.

Goals have been coming easily for United at home, with the Reds having scored two or more in 10 of their last 11 fixtures at Old Trafford. They bagged four goals in each of their last two home games, against Aston Villa and Everton, and could easily repeat that feat against a Swansea outfit who've already achieved their target of survival.

The six goals conceded in recent defeats at QPR and Tottenham suggest the Swans may be easing-up, defensively at least, as the season draws to a close. While last week's 4-4 thriller against a toothless Wolves side, merely adds fuel to the argument.

Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.444/9