Overs or Unders: There'll be no pottering around from Stoke and West Ham

Neil Harvey
31 October 2014

Looking to land another hammer blow: Expect BIg Sam's team to be on the attack

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It's Overs or Unders time again. And having moved into profit for the season, our analyst Neil Harvey is looking to build on his recent success with this weekend's picks from the English Premier league, where he fancies the games at Stoke and Manchester to be among the more entertaining...

"An aggressive approach away from home has proved successful for West Ham, yielding seven points from 12. But it’s also proved profitable for goal backers. All four of their away games have been high-scoring, producing 15 goals in total. And with the Londoners still flying high, that looks like a run that could easily continue."

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.1411/10

Saturday
Stoke City v West Ham United 15:00
Like a boulder rolling a down a hill, the confidence that's built up at West Ham is going to be hard to control. And why shouldn't Sam Allardyce's team be pumped up after beating Manchester City last week and moving to within a single point of third in the table? With form and confidence on their side, I expect the Hammers to head to the Midlands in attacking mood, keen to add another chapter to their thus-far fairytale season.

An aggressive approach away from home has proved successful for West Ham, yielding seven points from 12. But it's also proved profitable for goal backers. All four of their away games have been high-scoring, producing 15 goals in total. And with the Londoners still flying high, that looks like a run that could easily continue.

Stoke, though, are nobody's fools and are sure to put up quite a fight. The fact that West Ham have conceded in each of their away games suggests we'll see both teams find the net here. And the Potters, who have yet to draw at the Britannia Stadium, are closer to the relegation zone than they would like. So once again we're likely to see Mark Hughes' team pushing hard for victory, rather than settling for just a point at home.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.1411/10

Arsenal v Burnley 15:00
The whole 'being attacking' thing hasn't really worked out for Burnley at all. Not that you can blame manager Sean Dyche. He had no choice but to be more forward-thinking after watching his team score just once in their opening six Premier League games. They were on a road to nowhere and heading there fast. But adopting a more attacking approach has exposed the Clarets defensively, causing them to suffer just as much, only in a different kind of way.

So with the prospect of an away game at Arsenal on the horizon, I'm expecting Dyche to wind his neck in and have his team do what they do best - defend in numbers. After all, a heavy defeat could well cost him his job. So preventing that is likely to be among his top priorities.

The Gunners will of course start heavy favourites to win this game. But even if they do win, they might not do so easily, considering Arsene Wenger's team have yet to score more than two goals in any of their league home games this season.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.568/5

Sunday
Manchester City v Manchester United 13:30
This match might be easier to predict in terms of goals than you'd expect for a game of this magnitude. After all, when big derby games are played, they can sometimes cause teams to play within themselves, with a sense of fear. And that's hard to preempt.

But if we stick to the facts, things become clearer. For starters, City have been in good goalscoring form and average exactly two per game at the Etihad. They also sit six points behind leaders Chelsea and so have every motivation to go all-out for the win if they're realistic about winning the title. And then significantly, they have conceded in all four of their home games this season.

That bodes for well for goals, against a Man United side whose last two away games in the league produced 12 goals between them. And the fact that United have conceded eight times in their four away games so far, suggests we should see both teams on the scoresheet come Sunday. With both sides firing up front but struggling at the back, it doesn't look like a question of whether there'll be goals here or not, but more of how many.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.674/6

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur 16:00
The fact that 16th place Aston Villa and 11th placed Tottenham are both performing below expectation, could have a bearing on the way this game is played. Just a point separates these teams. And there are sure to be a few nerves jangling, as defeat for either could, theoretically at least, see them drop into the relegation zone. That's unlikely, but the point is both clubs are nearer the bottom of the table than they or their fans would like.

That pressure could do strange things to two sides who've already been unpredictable this season. Between Villa's home record and Spurs' away results, this game would be expected to have two and a half goals on average. But throw in the nerves and fear of failure and I think that could tip things in favour of a low-scoring game. The draw, especially, is a strong possibility for a Tottenham side who've already shared the points in two of their four away outings.

Recommended Bet:

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.865/6

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 28pts
Returned: 29.14pts
P/L: + 1.14pts

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