Overs or Unders: Leicester and QPR to see out season in style

Leicester top-scorer Leonardo Ulloa should be looking forward to facing the Premier League's worst defence
Leicester top-scorer Leonardo Ulloa should be looking forward to facing the Premier League's worst defence

It may be the final instalment of the Premier League season, but there are still profits to be made. And while Leicester and QPR may have underachieved on the pitch, they look like a winning formula to give us an end of season payday, as Neil Harvey explains in this week's Overs or Unders...

"The Foxes have hit a rich vein of form of late, scoring 10 times in their last five games at the King Power Stadium. And with the pressure now off, they could just find themselves involved in a free-for-all against the freefalling R's."

Recommended Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.645/8

Aston Villa v Burnley
15:00

Despite getting an absolute hammering last weekend, Aston Villa are now safe and can afford to relax going into their final game. And, for me, that spells goals. Villa's natural style since the arrival of Tim Sherwood has been an attacking one, a spirit of adventure that has been reined in only on the odd occasion by necessity. But now Sherwood can embrace his attacking instincts without fear. He is also sure to be looking for a impressive win, to help silence the loud cries of disgust that followed that 6-1 loss at Southampton.

Burnley too can relax. Now relegated, Sean Dyche's team will surely be allowed to be more aggressive and abandon the defensive style that was necessary for most of the campaign. Burnley's away games have averaged exactly two-and-a-half goals per game this season. Aston Villa's home record averages just a fraction below that. But liberated from responsibility I think we'll see both teams looking to see out the season in style.

Recommended Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1


Crystal Palace v Swansea City
15:00

This is one of those fixtures I always look for come the end of the season. A game between two teams who are in mid-table and who have nothing to play. Experience has taught me that such match-ups rarely produce goals or entertainment, and can prove a goalmine for anyone backing 'unders'.

Both Palace at home and Swansea away have averaged almost exactly two-and-a-half goals a game this season. But the question is how will they perform when there's little but pride at stake? Goals have certainly been in short supply for the home side of late, with the Eagles netting just once in their last 270 minutes at Selhurst Park.

Swansea meanwhile have been involved in seven low-scoring games out of nine away fixtures since New Year, with their defense conceding a fraction over a goal a game during that run. The Swans are the stronger team, but home advantage for the Eagles balances things out and could see this one peter out into a money-spinning draw.

Recommended Bet:

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.1211/10


Leicester City v QPR 15:00

This fixture might look like another potential damp squib, if it weren't for the fact that both teams have recently been among the goals. QPR in particular seem to have let themselves go as the season's progressed. Rangers' last six away games were all high scoring, producing 27 goals in total. And judging by their most recent outing, a 6-1 drubbing at Man City, it looks like Sunday's final whistle can't come soon enough for the Rangers defence.

That's not to say that the west Londoners themselves won't contribute to the entertainment. The Hoops have netted an impressive 14 goals in their last nine away games, scoring in all but one of those matches. It's a stunning effort from a team that lies bottom of the table, but also highlights just how many they must have been letting-in at the other end.

Leicester meanwhile can truly relax for perhaps the first time this season. And that could make for quite a spectacle. The Foxes have hit a rich vein of form of late, scoring 10 times in their last five games at the King Power Stadium. And with the pressure now off, they could just find themselves involved in a free-for-all against the freefalling R's.

Recommended Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.645/8


Stoke City v Liverpool 15:00

Last week's loss at home to Crystal Palace was quite an eye opener, and shows the extent to which Liverpool must have given up on this season. The Champions League dream is now over, and I'm not sure if the Reds even care that much about playing in the Europa League.

For whatever reason, things just didn't click for Liverpool during this campaign, with the most noticable difference from last season being the drop-off in their number of goals scored. Last year they netted a stunning 101 goals. This year's total? Just 51. And that lack of firepower has been evident on their recent travels, with Brendan Rodgers' side scoring just three times in their last five away matches.

To be fair to the Reds though, their defence has improved since last year. And it's been especially good on the road, registering a highly impressive six clean sheets in the last nine away games. Stoke meanwhile have been solid at home, but could find themselves frustrated by their ball-hogging but often impotent opponents.

Recommended Bet:

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0811/10

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 136 pts
Returned: 145.39 pts
P/L: +9.39

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