Two And A Half Goals: Bets for Saturday and Sunday

The Inside Man
18 August 2012

Will Aguero struggle to break down Saints?

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The Inside Man selects the best bets as he weighs up three Premier League fixtures as well as one from Russia...

Lambert’s Norwich side readily produced goals at both ends of the pitch, and pre-season results suggest that attacking approach is set to continue during his tenure at Villa.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1

Saturday

West Ham v Aston Villa

Both sides will fancy their chances of making to a winning start, which should make this one of the more open games on matchday one.

Sam Allardyce will know this is a home banker if his team want to achieve their target of Premier League survival. And Paul Lambert will realise they don't get much easier, on paper at least, than against newly promoted sides lacking top-flight experience.

West Ham's record last season, albeit against weaker opposition, shows they took a positive approach when playing with home advantage, with 67 goals scored in 23 matches at Upton Park.

The arrival of Paul Lambert could, for me, make Villa the revelation of this season. His record at Colchester and then Norwich was beyond reproach, and if he can bring that level of improvement to Villa then manager of the season could even be on the cards. The building blocks are certainly there, with the likes of Darren Bent and Gabby Agbonlahor already in situ.

Lambert's Norwich side readily produced goals at both ends of the pitch, and pre-season results suggest that attacking approach is set to continue during his tenure at Villa.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.981/1

Newcastle v Tottenham

Andre Villas Boas was used to succeeding during his fledgling managerial career, but then ran full speed into the brick wall of failure at Chelsea. That will have hurt, and possibly explains why he chose to stay in the Premier League with Spurs. A chance at redemption.

Hence I expect the Portuguese to return to the defence-minded approach that saw his Porto side go an entire season unbeaten. A heralded campaign during which they conceded just 13 goals.

A tough opener at Newcastle means Villas-Boas is likely to go safety first, while a current lack of striking options further suggests a cautious approach. And recalling those halcyon days at Porto, if anyone knows how to get men behind the ball, it's AVB.

Newcastle look likely to be without key creative influence Hatem Ben Arfa, while there are also major fitness doubts over their top-scorers from last season, Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse. If even one was to miss out, it could well leave Newcastle fumbling for the keys to unlock what's sure to be a stubborn Tottenham side.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.01/1

Sunday

Manchester City v Southampton

A total mismatch on first inspection, and expect all the pundits to be firmly tipping a big home win. But take caution.

First up, Southampton were the Championship's top scorers last season. This suggests they know not only how to keep the ball, but also use it. Smaller sides who can't keep the ball are the sort who struggle to score in the Premier League, because they give away possession so cheaply. The Saints, though, have shown enough to suggest they value possession and won't just be hoofing it away when under pressure. Ball retention takes time off the clock and means less time having to defend.

Secondly, Southampton had the Championship's third best defence last season. Better even than Sam Allardyce's West Ham. More known for their goalscoring, the Saints' defensive abilities have gone largely overlooked, but they're no less significant.

Of course, City's defence needs little introduction and was by the far the best in the Premier League last season. Throw in the fact that season openers can highlight some ring-rustiness, and the chances of Southampton keeping this close appeal greatly to me at what's sure to be a healthy price.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.727/4

Mordovia Saransk v CSKA Moscow

The opening four games of the season have left CSKA Moscow in the bottom half of the table, but I expect them to bounce back with a hefty win this weekend.

While six points from four games isn't exactly disastrous, but it has left them with half the total points of so-far-perfect league leaders Zenit. It's a gap that can't be allowed to grow.

CSKA's situation is also misleading in that their two defeats and two wins included a loss to reigning champions Zenit, plus a defeat in which they were reduced to nine men. An impressive win last week over Guus Hiddink's Anzhi suggests the Muscovites still have what it takes to challenge for the title.

Meanwhile, Saransk look there for the taking. Eight goals in their opening two home games doesn't bode well for the top-flight newcomers. Such open football is likely to play straight into the hands of the likes of CSKA's Doumbia and Honda, world-class players who'll relish the kind of space Saransk look likely to offer up.

Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.111/10